Ouyang Xianheng, Lin Haiping, Bai Shihao, Chen Jie, Chen Anliang
School of Forestry and Biotechnology, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, China.
Shanghai Center for Systems Biomedicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2022 Nov 14;13:1054710. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2022.1054710. eCollection 2022.
Due to climate change, it is significant to explore the impact of rising temperatures on the distribution of Lajonquiere (Lepidoptera) and its host plants, and , and to simulate their suitable future distribution areas in order to provide a theoretical basis for the monitoring of, and early warning about, and the formulation of effective prevention and control policies. Based on the known distribution areas of, and relevant climate data for, , , and , their suitable habitat in China was predicted using the ENMeval data package in order to adjust the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model parameters. The results showed that the regularization multiplier was 0.5 when the feature combination was LQHPT, with a MaxEnt model of lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. The main climate variable affecting the geographical distribution of , , and is temperature, specifically including isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of warmest month, minimum temperature of warmest month, average temperature of coldest quarter. The potential suitable distribution areas for and were similar under climate change, mainly distributed in southwest China, while was mainly distributed in southeast China. Under different future-climate scenarios, the areas suitable for the three species will increase, except for in the 2070s under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. With climate change, all three species were found to have a tendency to migrate to higher latitudes and higher altitudes. The centroids of the areas suitable for and will migrate to the northwest and the centroids of the areas suitable for will migrate to the northeast.
由于气候变化，探究气温上升对拉琼基尔蛾（鳞翅目）及其寄主植物分布的影响，并模拟它们未来适宜的分布区域，以便为其监测、预警及制定有效的防治政策提供理论依据，具有重要意义。基于拉琼基尔蛾已知分布区域及其相关气候数据，利用ENMeval数据包预测其在中国的适宜栖息地，以调整最大熵（MaxEnt）模型参数。结果表明，当特征组合为LQHPT时，正则化乘数为0.5，此时MaxEnt模型复杂度最低且预测精度良好。影响拉琼基尔蛾地理分布的主要气候变量是温度，具体包括等温性、温度季节性、最暖月最高温度、最暖月最低温度、最冷月平均温度。气候变化下，拉琼基尔蛾和[未提及的一种蛾类]的潜在适宜分布区域相似，主要分布在中国西南部，而[另一种蛾类]主要分布在中国东南部。在不同未来气候情景下，除共享社会经济路径5 - 8.5下2070年代的[未提及的一种蛾类]外，这三种蛾类的适宜区域都将增加。随着气候变化，这三种蛾类均有向更高纬度和更高海拔迁移的趋势。拉琼基尔蛾和[未提及的一种蛾类]适宜区域的质心将向西北迁移，[另一种蛾类]适宜区域的质心将向东北迁移。
