人类世珊瑚大规模白化的时空模式。

Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene.

机构信息

Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia.

College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia.

出版信息

Science. 2018 Jan 5;359(6371):80-83. doi: 10.1126/science.aan8048.

DOI:10.1126/science.aan8048

PMID:29302011

Abstract

Tropical reef systems are transitioning to a new era in which the interval between recurrent bouts of coral bleaching is too short for a full recovery of mature assemblages. We analyzed bleaching records at 100 globally distributed reef locations from 1980 to 2016. The median return time between pairs of severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years. As global warming has progressed, tropical sea surface temperatures are warmer now during current La Niña conditions than they were during El Niño events three decades ago. Consequently, as we transition to the Anthropocene, coral bleaching is occurring more frequently in all El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases, increasing the likelihood of annual bleaching in the coming decades.

摘要

热带珊瑚礁系统正进入一个新时代，在这个时代，珊瑚白化的反复发作之间的间隔太短，成熟的集合体无法完全恢复。我们分析了 1980 年至 2016 年全球分布的 100 个珊瑚礁地点的白化记录。自 1980 年以来，两次严重白化事件之间的中位数返回时间稳步减少，现在仅为 6 年。随着全球变暖的发展，现在热带海洋表面温度在当前拉尼娜条件下比三十年前厄尔尼诺事件期间更暖。因此，随着我们进入人类世，珊瑚白化在所有厄尔尼诺-南方涛动阶段更加频繁地发生，增加了未来几十年每年发生白化的可能性。