Qin Min, Falkingham Jane, Padmadas Sabu S
*ESRC Center for Population Change,University of Southampton,UK.
§Centre for Global Health,Population,Poverty & Policy.
J Biosoc Sci. 2018 Nov;50(6):800-822. doi: 10.1017/S002193201700061X. Epub 2018 Jan 10.
Although China's family planning programme is often referred to in the singular, most notably the One-Child policy, in reality there have been a number of different policies in place simultaneously, targeted at different sub-populations characterized by region and socioeconomic conditions. This study attempted to systematically assess the differential impact of China's family planning programmes over the past 40 years. The contribution of Parity Progression Ratios to fertility change among different sub-populations exposed to various family planning policies over time was assessed. Cross-sectional birth history data from six consecutive rounds of nationally representative population and family planning surveys from the early 1970s until the mid-2000s were used, covering all geographical regions of China. Four sub-populations exposed to differential family planning regimes were identified. The analyses provide compelling evidence of the influential role of family planning policies in reducing higher Parity Progression Ratios across different sub-populations, particularly in urban China where fertility dropped to replacement level even before the implementation of the One-Child policy. The prevailing socioeconomic conditions in turn have been instrumental in adapting and accelerating family planning policy responses to reducing fertility levels across China.
尽管中国的计划生育政策通常被视为一个整体，最著名的当属独生子女政策，但实际上同时存在着一系列针对不同地区和社会经济状况的不同政策。本研究试图系统评估中国计划生育政策在过去40年中的差异影响。评估了不同次群体中随着时间推移经历各种计划生育政策的胎次递进比（Parity Progression Ratios）对生育率变化的贡献。使用了从20世纪70年代初到21世纪中叶连续六轮具有全国代表性的人口与计划生育调查的横断面生育史数据，涵盖了中国所有地理区域。确定了经历不同计划生育制度的四个次群体。分析提供了令人信服的证据，证明计划生育政策在降低不同次群体中较高的胎次递进比方面发挥了重要作用，特别是在中国城市地区，甚至在独生子女政策实施之前生育率就已降至更替水平。而当时普遍的社会经济状况反过来又有助于调整和加速计划生育政策响应，以降低全中国的生育率水平。
