Division of Social Sciences, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, PRC.
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Beijing, PRC.
PLoS One. 2019 Nov 6;14(11):e0220170. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220170. eCollection 2019.
There is great debate surrounding the demographic impact of China's population control policies, especially the one-birth restrictions, which ended only recently. We apply an objective, data-driven method to construct the total fertility rates and population size of a 'synthetic China', which is assumed to be not subjected to the two major population control policies implemented in the 1970s. We find that while the earlier, less restrictive 'later-longer-fewer' policy introduced in 1973 played a critical role in driving down the fertility rate, the role of the 'one-child policy' introduced in 1979 and its descendants was much less significant. According to our model, had China continued with the less restrictive policies that were implemented in 1973 and followed a standard development trajectory, the path of fertility transition and total population growth would have been statistically very similar to the pattern observed over the past three decades.
中国人口控制政策，尤其是近期才结束的一孩政策，对人口结构的影响存在很大争议。我们采用客观、数据驱动的方法构建了一个“合成中国”的总和生育率和人口规模，假设其不受 20 世纪 70 年代实施的两项主要人口控制政策的影响。我们发现，虽然 1973 年推出的、限制较少的“晚、长、少”政策在降低生育率方面发挥了关键作用，但 1979 年推出的“一孩政策”及其后代的作用要小得多。根据我们的模型，如果中国继续执行 1973 年实施的限制较少的政策，并遵循标准的发展轨迹，那么生育率转变和总人口增长的路径在统计学上与过去三十年的模式非常相似。
