College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, 410082, PR China.
Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, 410082, PR China.
Sci Rep. 2018 Jan 9;8(1):214. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-18594-2.
Climate change and human activities cause uncertain changes to species biodiversity by altering their habitat. The uncertainty of climate change requires planners to balance the benefit and cost of making conservation plan. Here optimal protection approach for Lesser White-fronted Goose (LWfG) by coupling Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and Marxan selection were proposed. MPT was used to provide suggested weights of investment for protected area (PA) and reduce the influence of climatic uncertainty, while Marxan was utilized to choose a series of specific locations for PA. We argued that through combining these two commonly used techniques with the conservation plan, including assets allocation and PA chosing, the efficiency of rare bird's protection would be enhanced. In MPT analyses, the uncertainty of conservation-outcome can be reduced while conservation effort was allocated in Hunan, Jiangxi and Yangtze River delta. In Marxan model, the optimal location for habitat restorations based on existing nature reserve was identified. Clear priorities for the location and allocation of assets could be provided based on this research, and it could help decision makers to build conservation strategy for LWfG.
气候变化和人类活动通过改变物种栖息地，导致物种生物多样性的不确定变化。气候变化的不确定性要求规划者权衡制定保护计划的收益和成本。在这里，通过结合现代投资组合理论（MPT）和马克思安选择，为小天鹅（LWfG）提出了最佳保护方法。MPT 用于为保护区（PA）提供投资建议权重，并降低气候不确定性的影响，而马克思安则用于选择一系列特定的保护区地点。我们认为，通过将这两种常用技术与保护计划（包括资产分配和 PA 选择）相结合，可以提高稀有鸟类保护的效率。在 MPT 分析中，可以减少保护结果的不确定性，同时在湖南、江西和长江三角洲地区分配保护工作。在马克思安模型中，确定了基于现有自然保护区的栖息地恢复的最佳位置。根据这项研究，可以为位置和资产配置提供明确的优先事项，这有助于决策者为 LWfG 制定保护策略。
