Department of Science and High Technology, University of Insubria, Via Valleggio 11, 22100 Como, Italy.
TG Environmental Research, Sharnbrook, MK44 1PL, UK.
Environ Sci Process Impacts. 2018 Jan 24;20(1):58-71. doi: 10.1039/c7em00568g.
Environmental fate and exposure models are a powerful means to integrate information on chemicals, their partitioning and degradation behaviour, the environmental scenario and the emissions in order to compile a picture of chemical distribution and fluxes in the multimedia environment. A 1995 pioneering book, resulting from a series of workshops among model developers and users, reported the main advantages and identified needs for research in the field of multimedia fate models. Considerable efforts were devoted to their improvement in the past 25 years and many aspects were refined; notably the inclusion of nanomaterials among the modelled substances, the development of models at different spatial and temporal scales, the estimation of chemical properties and emission data, the incorporation of additional environmental media and processes, the integration of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the simulations. However, some challenging issues remain and require research efforts and attention: the need of methods to estimate partition coefficients for polar and ionizable chemical in the environment, a better description of bioavailability in different environments as well as the requirement of injecting more ecological realism in exposure predictions to account for the diversity of ecosystem structures and functions in risk assessment. Finally, to transfer new scientific developments into the realm of regulatory risk assessment, we propose the formation of expert groups that compare, discuss and recommend model modifications and updates and help develop practical tools for risk assessment.
环境归趋和暴露模型是一种强大的手段，可以整合有关化学物质、其分配和降解行为、环境状况以及排放的信息，以描绘化学物质在多介质环境中的分布和通量。1995 年的一本开拓性书籍是模型开发者和使用者之间一系列研讨会的成果，报告了多媒体归趋模型领域的主要优势和研究需求。在过去的 25 年中，人们为改进这些模型做出了巨大努力，许多方面得到了完善；特别是将纳米材料纳入到模型物质中，开发不同时空尺度的模型，估计化学性质和排放数据，纳入更多的环境介质和过程，以及在模拟中整合敏感性和不确定性分析。然而，一些具有挑战性的问题仍然存在，需要研究工作和关注：需要方法来估计环境中极性和可离子化化学物质的分配系数，更好地描述不同环境中的生物利用度，以及需要在暴露预测中注入更多的生态现实，以考虑风险评估中生态系统结构和功能的多样性。最后，为了将新的科学发展转化为监管风险评估领域，我们建议成立专家组，对模型的修改和更新进行比较、讨论和推荐，并帮助开发风险评估的实用工具。
