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近年来中国地面监测 PM 浓度的时空分布模式。

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ground Monitored PM Concentrations in China in Recent Years.

机构信息

School of Statistics, Shanxi University of Finance & Economics, 696 Wucheng Road, Taiyuan 030006, China.

LREIS, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Datun Road 11A, Beijing 10010, China.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Jan 11;15(1):114. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15010114.

Abstract

This paper firstly explores the space-time evolution of city-level PM 2.5 concentrations showed a very significant seasonal cycle type fluctuation during the period between 13 May 2014 and 30 May 2017. The period from October to April following each year was a heavy pollution period, whereas the phase from April to October of the current year was part of a light pollution period. The average monthly PM 2.5 concentrations in mainland China based on ground monitoring, employing a descriptive statistics method and a Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchy model. Daily and weekly average PM 2.5 concentrations in 338 cities in mainland China presented no significant spatial difference during the severe pollution period but a large spatial difference during light pollution periods. The severe PM 2.5 pollution areas were mainly distributed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in the North China Plain during the beginning of each autumn-winter season (September), spreading to the Northeast Plains after October, then later continuing to spread to other cities in mainland China, eventually covering most cities. PM 2.5 pollution in China appeared to be a cyclic characteristic of first spreading and then centralizing in the space in two spring-summer seasons, and showed an obvious process of first diffusing then transferring to shrinkage alternation during the spring-summer season of 2015, but showed no obvious diffusion during the spring-summer season of 2016, maintaining a stable spatial structure after the shrinkage in June, as well as being more concentrated. The heavily polluted areas are continuously and steadily concentrated in East China, Central China and Xinjiang Province.

摘要

本文首先探讨了城市层面 PM2.5 浓度的时空演变,发现在 2014 年 5 月 13 日至 2017 年 5 月 30 日期间,其表现出非常显著的季节性周期波动。每年的 10 月至 4 月是重污染期,而当年的 4 月至 10 月是轻污染期。基于地面监测,采用描述性统计方法和贝叶斯时空层次模型,对中国大陆地区的 PM2.5 浓度进行了平均月度分析。中国 338 个城市的日平均和周平均 PM2.5 浓度在重污染期没有明显的空间差异,但在轻污染期存在较大的空间差异。重污染期间,京津冀城市群的 PM2.5 污染严重,在每年秋末至初冬(9 月)开始向东北平原蔓延,10 月后继续向中国其他城市蔓延,最终覆盖了大部分城市。中国 PM2.5 污染呈现出秋冬两季在空间上先扩散后集中的周期性特征,2015 年春夏两季表现出明显的先扩散后转移收缩的过程,但 2016 年春夏两季没有明显的扩散,6 月收缩后空间结构保持稳定,且更加集中。重污染地区持续稳定地集中在华东、华中及新疆地区。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/917c/5800213/541c0c5eea2a/ijerph-15-00114-g001.jpg

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