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["“2+26”城市春节和元宵节期间污染特征、气象影响及预报回顾分析"]

[Analysis of Pollution Characteristics, Meteorological Impact, and Forecast Retrospective During the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival in "2+26" Cities].

作者信息

Zhu Yuan-Yuan, Wang Xiao-Fei, Wang Wei, Dao Xu, Wang Shuai, Chen Shan-Rong

机构信息

China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, Beijing 100012, China.

School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China.

出版信息

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2022 Mar 8;43(3):1212-1225. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202104329.

DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202104329
PMID:35258185
Abstract

The PMconcentration characteristics of "2+26" cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding region during the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival in 2021 were analyzed. The average daily concentration and hourly concentration of PM in the three days before and after the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival from 2016 to 2021 and the characteristics of the PM chemical components during the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival from 2019 to 2021 were comparatively analyzed. In addition, the impact of meteorological factors on PM concentration from 2016 to 2021 and the key factors affecting the forecast result of Beijing during the Spring Festival in 2021 were discussed. The results showed that the combination of fireworks and firecrackers and adverse weather conditions resulted in a moderate to heavy pollution process during the Spring Festival in 2021 and a light to moderate pollution process during the Lantern Festival in "2+26" cities. The average (PM) was 111 μg·m. The hourly peak (PM) was 156 μg·m, which was the lowest in 2016 to 2021. The three days before and after the Lantern Festival in 2021, the average (PM) of "2+26" cities was 85 μg·m, and the hourly peak (PM) was 125 μg·m. During this period, the hour number of heavy and severe pollution was the lowest in 2016 to 2021. Component observation results showed that the impact of fireworks and firecrackers during the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival in 2021 was gradually reduced, and the effect of bans and restrictions for fireworks and firecrackers was significant. The regional pollution was dominated by conventional pollution accumulation and nitrate. The concentration of organic matter in some cities during the Spring Festival was relatively high, which may be related to local industrial emissions and the impact of blasting fireworks and firecrackers. The comparative analysis of meteorological factors and PM concentration showed that the factors such as wind speed and direction, ground pressure, and relative humidity all affected PM concentration and the duration of the regional pollution process. The influence of oscillation of the boundary layer transport sink on diffusion conditions in the North China Plain, the location and intensity of the small high pressure in North China and the intensity of its high-altitude moving airflow, and the uncertainty of fireworks displays, as well as the low accuracy of weather forecasts caused by frequent weather changes during the alternate period of winter and spring, could affect the accuracy of air quality forecast results in the northern Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In summary, although the impact of fireworks and firecrackers has been reduced in recent years, in order to improve the air quality, it is recommended to further strengthen the control of fireworks and firecrackers, especially outside the Beijing Fifth Ring Road and Beijing's surrounding cities.

摘要

分析了2021年春节和元宵节期间京津冀及周边地区“2+26”城市的PM浓度特征。对比分析了2016年至2021年春节和元宵节前后三天的PM日均浓度和小时浓度,以及2019年至2021年春节和元宵节期间的PM化学成分特征。此外,还讨论了2016年至2021年气象因素对PM浓度的影响以及2021年春节期间影响北京预报结果的关键因素。结果表明,烟花爆竹燃放与不利气象条件共同作用,导致2021年春节期间“2+26”城市出现中度至重度污染过程,元宵节期间出现轻度至中度污染过程。PM平均浓度为111μg·m。小时峰值浓度为156μg·m,为2016年至2021年最低值。2021年元宵节前后三天,“2+26”城市PM平均浓度为85μg·m,小时峰值浓度为125μg·m。在此期间,重度和严重污染小时数为2016年至2021年最低。成分观测结果表明,2021年春节和元宵节期间烟花爆竹燃放的影响逐渐减小,烟花爆竹禁放限放效果显著。区域污染以常规污染累积和硝酸盐为主。部分城市春节期间有机物浓度较高,可能与当地工业排放以及烟花爆竹燃放影响有关。气象因素与PM浓度对比分析表明,风速风向、地面气压、相对湿度等因素均对PM浓度及区域污染过程持续时间产生影响。边界层输送下沉振荡对华北平原扩散条件的影响、华北地区小高压位置强度及其高空移动气流强度、烟花爆竹燃放的不确定性以及冬春交替期间天气变化频繁导致天气预报准确率较低,均会影响京津冀北部地区空气质量预报结果的准确性。综上所述,尽管近年来烟花爆竹燃放影响有所减小,但为改善空气质量,建议进一步加强烟花爆竹管控,尤其是北京五环路以外及北京周边城市。

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