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2015 年至 2018 年中国大陆二氧化氮污染的时空特征。

Spatiotemporal characteristics of nitrogen dioxide pollution in mainland China from 2015 to 2018.

机构信息

School of Statistics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Wucheng Road 696, Taiyuan, 030006, China.

出版信息

Environ Monit Assess. 2021 Apr 29;193(5):313. doi: 10.1007/s10661-021-09099-7.

Abstract

With the rapid industrial development and urbanisation in China, nitrogen dioxide [Formula: see text] pollution has become a severe environmental problem that threatens public health. Based on hourly concentration monitoring data of the six main air pollutants in mainland China, a space-time Bayesian hierarchy model was employed to analyse the spatiotemporal trends of the absolute and relative [Formula: see text] concentrations (i.e., the proportion of [Formula: see text] in the six main air pollutants: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text]). Both the absolute and relative [Formula: see text] concentrations were higher in the autumn and winter of each year during the study period. Four regions in particular-the North China Plain, the Yangtze River Delta, the Sichuan Basin, and the Pearl River Delta-experience the largest amounts of [Formula: see text] pollution, with a high local magnitude of more than 1.0 relative to the overall absolute and relative [Formula: see text] concentrations; this affects an area with a human population of 571.85 million, which is 42.47% of the total population. Central China (i.e., the Shaanxi-Shanxi-Henan region) and the Tarim Basin (northwest of Xinjiang) were heavily polluted by [Formula: see text] and other pollutants throughout the year, with a high local magnitude of more than 1.0 relative to the overall absolute [Formula: see text] concentration. The [Formula: see text] pollution in most of the cities in western and southern China is less serious, along with cities in the northeast. Local trends reveal that in general, cities with high [Formula: see text] pollution are accompanied by upward trends. Specifically, except for in the summer, there were about 86 cities showing the increasing trend, of which 66 cities are located in areas with higher absolute and relative [Formula: see text] concentrations. Taiyuan, for example, represents the maximal local trend, with an average annual increase of 4.39 (95% CI 1.61-7.43) [Formula: see text] and 0.43 (95% CI 0.16-0.73) %, respectively, which will lead to further increases in the population exposure-risk in heavily polluted areas.

摘要

随着中国工业化和城市化的快速发展,二氧化氮[Formula: see text]污染已成为威胁公众健康的严重环境问题。本研究基于中国内地主要六种空气污染物的逐时浓度监测数据,采用时空贝叶斯层次模型分析了绝对和相对[Formula: see text]浓度(即[Formula: see text]在六种主要空气污染物中的比例:[Formula: see text]、[Formula: see text]、[Formula: see text]、[Formula: see text]、[Formula: see text]和[Formula: see text])的时空变化趋势。在研究期间,绝对和相对[Formula: see text]浓度在每年的秋季和冬季都较高。华北平原、长江三角洲、四川盆地和珠江三角洲四个地区的[Formula: see text]污染最为严重,其相对绝对和相对[Formula: see text]浓度的局部幅度均超过 1.0,影响了 5.7185 亿人口,占总人口的 42.47%。整个中国中部(即陕西-山西-河南地区)和塔里木盆地(新疆西北部)全年受[Formula: see text]和其他污染物污染严重,其相对绝对[Formula: see text]浓度的局部幅度均超过 1.0。中国西部和南部大部分城市以及东北部城市的[Formula: see text]污染相对较轻。局部趋势表明,总体而言,高[Formula: see text]污染城市伴随着上升趋势。具体而言,除夏季外,约有 86 个城市呈上升趋势,其中 66 个城市位于绝对和相对[Formula: see text]浓度较高的地区。例如,太原市的局部趋势最大,平均年增长率分别为 4.39(95%置信区间 1.61-7.43)[Formula: see text]和 0.43(95%置信区间 0.16-0.73)%,这将导致高污染地区的人口暴露风险进一步增加。

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