Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, 235 Jones St, Ultimo 2007, NSW, Australia; School of Geography and the Environment and Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom.
Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, 235 Jones St, Ultimo 2007, NSW, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jun 1;626:156-164. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.302. Epub 2018 Jan 16.
An improved understanding of failure risks for water supplies in rural sub-Saharan Africa will be critical to achieving the global goal of safe water for all by 2030. In the absence of longitudinal biophysical and operational data, investigations into water point failure risk factors have to date been limited to cross-sectional research designs. This retrospective cohort study applies survival analysis to identify factors that predict failure risks for handpumps installed on boreholes along the south coast of Kenya from the 1980s. The analysis is based on a unique dataset linking attributes of >300 water points at the time of installation with their operational lifespan over the following decades. Cox proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models suggest water point failure risks are higher and lifespans are shorter when water supplied is more saline, static water level is deeper, and groundwater is pumped from an unconsolidated sand aquifer. The risk of failure also appears to grow as distance to spare part suppliers increases. To bolster the sustainability of rural water services and ensure no community is left behind, post-construction support mechanisms will need to mitigate heterogeneous environmental and geographical challenges. Further studies are needed to better understand the causal pathways that underlie these risk factors in order to inform policies and practices that ensure water services are sustained even where unfavourable conditions prevail.
提高对撒哈拉以南非洲农村供水系统故障风险的认识，对于实现到 2030 年人人享有安全饮用水的全球目标至关重要。由于缺乏纵向的生物物理和运营数据，迄今为止，对水点故障风险因素的调查仅限于横断面研究设计。本回顾性队列研究应用生存分析来确定在肯尼亚南部沿海地区安装在钻孔上的手泵的故障风险预测因素，这些手泵可追溯到 20 世纪 80 年代。该分析基于一个独特的数据集，该数据集将 300 多个以上的水点的属性与它们在接下来几十年的运行寿命联系起来。Cox 比例风险和加速失效时间模型表明，当供水的盐度更高、静态水位更深、地下水从非固结砂含水层抽取时，水点的故障风险更高，寿命更短。随着与备件供应商的距离增加，故障风险似乎也在增加。为了增强农村供水服务的可持续性，确保没有一个社区被落下，建设后的支持机制将需要减轻环境和地理条件的异质性挑战。需要进一步研究，以更好地了解这些风险因素背后的因果途径，以便为政策和实践提供信息，确保即使在不利条件下也能维持供水服务。
