Department of Science and Environmental Studies, The Education University of Hong Kong, 10 Lo Ping Road, Taipo, Hong Kong.
School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, People's Republic of China.
Phys Rev E. 2017 Nov;96(5-1):052312. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.96.052312. Epub 2017 Nov 17.
The stability of powergrid is crucial since its disruption affects systems ranging from street lightings to hospital life-support systems. While short-term dynamics of single-event cascading failures have been extensively studied, less is understood on the long-term evolution and self-organization of powergrids. In this paper, we introduce a simple model of evolving powergrid and establish its connection with the sandpile model and earthquakes, i.e., self-organized systems with intermittent strain releases. Various aspects during its self-organization are examined, including blackout magnitudes, their interevent waiting time, the predictability of large blackouts, as well as the spatiotemporal rescaling of blackout data. We examined the self-organized strain releases on simulated networks as well as the IEEE 118-bus system, and we show that both simulated and empirical blackout waiting times can be rescaled in space and time similarly to those observed between earthquakes. Finally, we suggested proactive maintenance strategies to drive the powergrids away from self-organization to suppress large blackouts.
电网的稳定性至关重要,因为其中断会影响从路灯到医院生命支持系统等各种系统。虽然已经广泛研究了单一事件级联故障的短期动态,但对电网的长期演变和自组织了解较少。在本文中,我们引入了一个简单的演化电网模型,并建立了它与沙堆模型和地震之间的联系,即具有间歇性应变释放的自组织系统。检查了自组织过程中的各个方面,包括停电规模、停电事件之间的等待时间、大停电的可预测性以及停电数据的时空比例缩放。我们在模拟网络和 IEEE 118 母线系统上检查了自组织应变释放,并表明模拟和经验停电等待时间可以在空间和时间上进行比例缩放,类似于观察到的地震之间的比例缩放。最后,我们提出了主动维护策略,以将电网从自组织中驱动出来,从而抑制大停电。