Kornbluth Yosef, Cwilich Gabriel, Buldyrev Sergey V, Soltan Saleh, Zussman Gil
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
Department of Physics, Yeshiva University, New York, New York, USA.
Phys Rev E. 2021 Mar;103(3-1):032309. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.103.032309.
Carreras, Dobson, and colleagues have studied empirical data on the sizes of the blackouts in real grids and modeled them with computer simulations using the direct current approximation. They have found that the resulting blackout sizes are distributed as a power law and suggested that this is because the grids are driven to the self-organized critical state. In contrast, more recent studies found that the distribution of cascades is bimodal resulting in either a very small blackout or a very large blackout, engulfing a finite fraction of the system. Here we reconcile the two approaches and investigate how the distribution of the blackouts changes with model parameters, including the tolerance criteria and the dynamic rules of failure of the overloaded lines during the cascade. In addition, we study the same problem for the Motter and Lai model and find similar results, suggesting that the physical laws of flow on the network are not as important as network topology, overload conditions, and dynamic rules of failure.
卡雷拉斯、多布森及其同事研究了实际电网中停电规模的实证数据，并使用直流近似法通过计算机模拟对其进行建模。他们发现，由此产生的停电规模呈幂律分布，并认为这是因为电网被驱动到了自组织临界状态。相比之下，最近的研究发现，级联分布是双峰的，导致要么停电规模非常小，要么停电规模非常大，影响系统的有限部分。在这里，我们调和了这两种方法，并研究了停电分布如何随模型参数变化，包括级联过程中过载线路的容忍标准和故障动态规则。此外，我们对莫特和赖模型研究了同样的问题，并得到了类似的结果，这表明网络上的流量物理规律不如网络拓扑、过载条件和故障动态规则重要。
