Section of Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
J Natl Cancer Inst. 2018 Jul 1;110(7):791-793. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djx287.
Although overall colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rates in the United States are declining, rates among younger persons (age < 55 years) are increasing, particularly among US whites. We assessed how these trends will impact the future burden (up to 2040) of CRC among US blacks and whites using an age-period-cohort model. Over the last four decades (1973 to 2014), CRC incidence rates for all ages (both sexes) have dropped by 6.6% and 33.9% in US blacks and whites, respectively. Yet we predict an upward turn in CRC cancer incidence rates over the next quarter century, particularly among US whites. The age-standardized rates of CRC were 55.4 and 43.2 per 100 000 among US blacks and whites in 2014, respectively, and are projected to be 49.5 and 43.1 in 2040, respectively. Future interventions are needed to reduce the striking differences in CRC incidence between blacks and whites.
尽管美国的总体结直肠癌（CRC）发病率正在下降，但年轻人（<55 岁）的发病率却在上升，尤其是美国白人。我们使用年龄-时期-队列模型评估了这些趋势将如何影响未来美国黑人和白人的 CRC 负担（直至 2040 年）。在过去的四十年（1973 年至 2014 年），美国黑人和白人所有年龄段（男女）的 CRC 发病率分别下降了 6.6%和 33.9%。然而，我们预计在未来四分之一世纪，CRC 癌症发病率将上升，尤其是在美国白人中。2014 年，美国黑人的 CRC 标准化年龄发病率为每 100000 人 55.4 人，白人的发病率为 43.2 人，预计到 2040 年，这一数字将分别降至 49.5 和 43.1。未来需要采取干预措施，以减少黑人和白人之间 CRC 发病率的显著差异。
