Corry Olaf
University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
Secur Dialogue. 2017 Aug;48(4):297-315. doi: 10.1177/0967010617704142. Epub 2017 Jul 10.
Geoengineering technologies aim to make large-scale and deliberate interventions in the climate system possible. A typical framing is that researchers are exploring a 'Plan B' in case mitigation fails to avert dangerous climate change. Some options are thought to have the potential to alter the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the 'security hazard' and argues that this could be a crucial factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become something certain states can be made directly responsible for, this may also negatively affect prospects for 'Plan A', i.e. an effective global agreement on mitigation.
地球工程技术旨在使大规模且有计划地干预气候系统成为可能。一种典型的观点认为,万一减缓措施未能避免危险的气候变化,研究人员正在探索一种“B计划”。一些方案被认为有可能极大地改变气候变化的政治格局,然而在评估它们是否最终可能降低气候风险时,其政治和安全影响迄今尚未得到充分重视。本文提出了所谓的“安全隐患”,并认为这可能是决定一项技术最终能否降低气候风险的关键因素。关于地球工程全球治理的观点依赖于有关国家理性和总体和平的国际体系的大胆假设。此外,如果在一个经过气候工程改造的世界里,天气事件成为某些特定国家可直接负责的事情,这也可能对“ A计划”的前景产生负面影响,即就减缓措施达成有效的全球协议。