Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 151-744, Republic of Korea.
Department of Transportation Engineering, Myongji University, 116 Myongji-ro, Cheoin-gu, Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
Accid Anal Prev. 2018 Apr;113:279-286. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2018.01.028. Epub 2018 Mar 7.
Current traffic law enforcement places an emphasis on reducing accident risk from human factors such as drunk driving and speeding. Among the various strategies implemented, demerit points and license sanction systems have been widely used as punitive and educational measures. Limitations, however, exist in previous studies in terms of estimating the interaction effects of demerit points and license sanctions. To overcome such limitations, this work focused on identifying the interaction effects of demerit points and license sanctions on driver traffic violation behavior. The interaction deterrent effects were assessed by using a Cox's proportional hazard model to provide a more accurate and unbiased estimation. For this purpose, five years of driver conviction data was obtained from the Korea National Police Agency (KNPA). This data included personal characteristics, demerit point accumulation and license sanction status. The analysis showed that accumulated demerit points had specific deterrent effects. Additionally, license revocation showed consistent and significant deterrent effects, greater than those for suspension. Male drivers under their 30s holding a motorcycle license were identified as the most violation-prone driver group, suggesting that stricter testing for the acquisition of a motorcycle driver's license is needed.
现行的交通执法重点在于降低人为因素（如酒驾和超速）导致的事故风险。在实施的各种策略中，扣分和吊销驾照制度已被广泛用作惩罚和教育措施。然而，以前的研究在估计扣分和吊销驾照制裁的交互效应方面存在局限性。为了克服这些局限性，本研究重点研究了扣分和吊销驾照制裁对驾驶员交通违法行为的交互抑制效应。采用 Cox 比例风险模型评估交互威慑效应，以提供更准确和无偏的估计。为此，从韩国国家警察厅（KNPA）获得了五年的驾驶员定罪数据。该数据包括个人特征、扣分积累和驾照制裁状况。分析表明，累计扣分具有特定的威慑作用。此外，吊销驾照显示出一致且显著的威慑效果，大于吊销的效果。年龄在 30 岁以下、持有摩托车驾照的男性驾驶员被确定为最易违规的驾驶员群体，这表明需要更严格地测试获取摩托车驾照。
