The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
Psychol Sci. 2018 Apr;29(4):504-520. doi: 10.1177/0956797617739369. Epub 2018 Feb 21.
Research suggests that people prefer confident to uncertain advisors. But do people dislike uncertain advice itself? In 11 studies ( N = 4,806), participants forecasted an uncertain event after receiving advice and then rated the quality of the advice (Studies 1-7, S1, and S2) or chose between two advisors (Studies 8-9). Replicating previous research, our results showed that confident advisors were judged more favorably than advisors who were "not sure." Importantly, however, participants were not more likely to prefer certain advice: They did not dislike advisors who expressed uncertainty by providing ranges of outcomes, giving numerical probabilities, or saying that one event is "more likely" than another. Additionally, when faced with an explicit choice, participants were more likely to choose an advisor who provided uncertain advice over an advisor who provided certain advice. Our findings suggest that people do not inherently dislike uncertain advice. Advisors benefit from expressing themselves with confidence, but not from communicating false certainty.
研究表明，人们更喜欢自信的顾问，而不是不确定的顾问。但是人们真的不喜欢不确定的建议本身吗？在 11 项研究（N=4806）中，参与者在收到建议后对不确定事件进行了预测，然后对建议的质量进行了评估（研究 1-7、S1 和 S2）或在两名顾问之间做出选择（研究 8-9）。我们的研究结果复制了之前的研究，表明自信的顾问比“不确定”的顾问得到了更有利的评价。然而，重要的是，参与者并不倾向于更喜欢确定的建议：他们并不讨厌那些通过提供结果范围、给出数值概率或说一个事件“更有可能”发生来表示不确定性的顾问。此外，当面临明确的选择时，参与者更倾向于选择提供不确定建议的顾问，而不是提供确定建议的顾问。我们的研究结果表明，人们并不天生就不喜欢不确定的建议。顾问从自信地表达自己中获益，但从传达虚假的确定性中没有获益。
