Fredi Alexander Diaz-Quijano and Alexandre Dias Porto Chiavegatto Filho are with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. Daniele Maria Pelissari is a PhD student in epidemiology at the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo.
Am J Public Health. 2018 Apr;108(4):514-516. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2017.304260. Epub 2018 Feb 22.
To estimate birth reduction potentially in response to Zika virus-associated microcephaly among the 36 largest Brazilian cities.
We analyzed the number of live births per month on the basis of information on approximately 8.2 million births from all of Brazil's state capitals and cities that had more than 10 000 annual births.
In the second half of 2016, the live birth rate was reduced by 7.78% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.64%, 8.89%; P < .001). This reduction was correlated with the Zika virus-associated microcephaly rate. In the cities with the highest microcephaly rate in 2015 (> 1 case per 1000 live births), the reduction in the live birth rate was 10.84% (95% CI = 8.58%, 13.04%).
The birth rate in the largest Brazilian cities during the second half of 2016 was significantly reduced, which is potentially the effect of a birth control recommendation prompted by an epidemiological alert. Public Health Implications. The effects of population-based interventions should be weighed by considering the actual risk of disease and the sociodemographic impact of strategies such as birth control.
估计由于巴西 36 个最大城市中寨卡病毒相关小头畸形而导致的出生人数减少。
我们分析了每个月的活产数，基础数据是巴西所有州首府和每年活产数超过 10000 的城市的约 820 万出生信息。
2016 年下半年，活产率降低了 7.78%（95%置信区间[CI] = 6.64%，8.89%；P<.001）。这种降低与寨卡病毒相关的小头畸形率相关。在 2015 年小头畸形率最高（每 1000 例活产 1 例以上）的城市，活产率降低了 10.84%（95% CI = 8.58%，13.04%）。
2016 年下半年，巴西最大城市的出生率显著降低，这可能是由于寨卡病毒引发的流行病学警报导致的生育控制建议。公共卫生意义。在考虑疾病的实际风险和生育控制等策略的社会人口学影响时，应权衡基于人群的干预措施的效果。
