Department of Entomology, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States of America.
Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2018 Feb 22;13(2):e0193110. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0193110. eCollection 2018.
An accurate quantitative relationship between key characteristics of an insect population, such as season-long and peak abundances, can be very useful in pest management programs. To the best of our knowledge, no such relationship has yet been established. Here we establish a predictive linear relationship between insect catch Mpw during the week of peak abundance, the length of seasonal flight period, F (number of weeks) and season-long cumulative catch (abundance) A = 0.41MpwF. The derivation of the equation is based on several general assumptions and does not involve fitting to experimental data, which implies generality of the result. A quantitative criterion for the validity of the model is presented. The equation was tested using extensive data collected on captures of male gypsy moths Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) in pheromone-baited traps during 15 years. The model was also tested using trap catch data for two species of mosquitoes, Culex pipiens (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae), in Gravid and BG-sentinel mosquito traps, respectively. The simple, parameter-free equation approximates experimental data points with relative error of 13% and R2 = 0.997, across all of the species tested. For gypsy moth, we also related season-long and weekly trap catches to the daily trap catches during peak flight. We describe several usage scenarios, in which the derived relationships are employed to help link results of small-scale field studies to the operational pest management programs.
昆虫种群的关键特征（如全年和高峰期的丰度）之间的准确定量关系在害虫管理计划中非常有用。据我们所知，目前还没有建立这种关系。在这里，我们建立了一个预测线性关系，即在高峰期的一周内昆虫捕获量 Mpw、季节性飞行期的长度 F（周数）和全年累计捕获量 A 之间的关系，即 A = 0.41MpwF。该方程的推导基于几个一般假设，不涉及对实验数据的拟合，这意味着结果具有通用性。提出了一个模型有效性的定量标准。该方程使用在性信息素诱捕器中捕获的雄性舞毒蛾 Lymantria dispar（鳞翅目：夜蛾科）的大量数据进行了测试，这些数据是在 15 年期间收集的。该模型还使用 Gravid 和 BG-sentinel 诱蚊器中捕获的两种蚊子，库蚊 Culex pipiens（L.）（双翅目：蚊科）和白纹伊蚊 Aedes albopictus（Skuse）（双翅目：蚊科）的诱蚊器捕获数据进行了测试。这个简单的、无参数的方程可以用相对误差 13%和 R2 = 0.997 来近似所有测试物种的实验数据点。对于舞毒蛾，我们还将全年和每周的诱捕器捕获量与高峰期的每日诱捕器捕获量相关联。我们描述了几种使用场景，在这些场景中，衍生的关系被用来帮助将小规模实地研究的结果与运营性害虫管理计划联系起来。
