Kaplan J E, Spira T J, Fishbein D B, Pinsky P F, Schonberger L B
JAMA. 1987 Jan 16;257(3):335-7. doi: 10.1001/jama.257.3.335.
Seventy-five homosexual men with lymphadenopathy syndrome (LAS) for three months or more and antibody against the human immunodeficiency virus were enrolled in a prospective study in Atlanta in 1982 and 1983. Fourteen developed the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) three to 38 months after enrollment in the study and five to 56 months after onset of LAS. The five-year cumulative incidence rate of AIDS after onset of LAS was 29%; yearly incidence rates showed no decreasing trend with time. Of 18 patients with constitutional symptoms and a low T-helper cell count at their first visit, nine developed AIDS; of the remaining 57 patients, five developed AIDS (five-year cumulative incidence rates, 57% and 18%, respectively, P less than .001). Patients with lymphadenopathy syndrome are at continuing risk for the development of AIDS. Those with constitutional symptoms and a low T-helper cell count at their first visit appear to be at higher risk; other LAS patients are at lower risk but may still develop AIDS.
1982年和1983年,75名患有淋巴结病综合征(LAS)达三个月或更长时间且携带人类免疫缺陷病毒抗体的同性恋男性参与了亚特兰大的一项前瞻性研究。14人在入组研究后3至38个月,LAS发病后5至56个月患上了获得性免疫缺陷综合征(AIDS)。LAS发病后AIDS的五年累积发病率为29%;年发病率未随时间呈现下降趋势。首次就诊时有全身症状且辅助性T细胞计数低的18名患者中,9人患上了AIDS;其余57名患者中,5人患上了AIDS(五年累积发病率分别为57%和18%,P小于0.001)。患有淋巴结病综合征的患者持续面临患AIDS的风险。首次就诊时有全身症状且辅助性T细胞计数低的患者似乎风险更高;其他LAS患者风险较低,但仍可能患上AIDS。