The clinical prognosis of HIV-1 infection: a review of 32 follow-up studies.

Thirty-two follow-up studies of patients with HIV-1 infection, but without AIDS at baseline, were examined for information on the risk of developing AIDS or other conditions. Disease progression in asymptomatic groups was similar to that found in patients with persistent generalized lymphadenopathy (PGL) without other symptoms. Among these asymptomatic and PGL groups, the risk of developing AIDS reached 10% to 15% between 24 and 36 months of follow up. The risk of progression to AIDS continued to increase in the studies with longer follow-up periods, reaching 36% at 88 months. However, more than 40% of "high-risk" groups (characterized by the presence of constitutional symptoms, oral thrush, herpes zoster, and/or low T4 counts) developed AIDS after only 36 months of follow-up. Reliable information about progression to other states (e.g., AIDS-related complex) has not been consistently provided.