de Wolf F, Lange J M, Houweling J T, Coutinho R A, Schellekens P T, van der Noordaa J, Goudsmit J
Department of Virology, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
J Infect Dis. 1988 Sep;158(3):615-22. doi: 10.1093/infdis/158.3.615.
The relation between serological and immunologic profiles and the risk of developing AIDS was assessed in 306 initially asymptomatic, human immunodeficiency virus-infected homosexual men studied for 30 mo. Twenty-nine men developed AIDS (attack rate, 16.8%). The attack rate in core antibody-negative men was 35.7%; this rate was 43.9% in antigen-positive men, 51.9% in men with low (less than 0.5 x 10(9)/L) CD4+ cell counts, 6.8% in core antibody-positive men, 6.9% in antigen-negative men, and 6.1% in men with normal CD4+ cell counts. The disappearance of core antibody, the expression of antigen, and the occurrence of low CD4+ cell counts preceded AIDS by a median of 624, 544, and 466 d, respectively. Seronegativity for core antibody preceded AIDS in 21 of 26 patients, 20 of whom were also antigen positive. Four more cases of AIDS developed among the antigen-negative, core antibody-positive men with low CD4+ cell counts. Only one patient with AIDS escaped detection by using these three markers.
在306名最初无症状的人类免疫缺陷病毒感染同性恋男性中评估了血清学和免疫学特征与患艾滋病风险之间的关系，这些男性接受了30个月的研究。29名男性患上了艾滋病（发病率为16.8%）。核心抗体阴性男性的发病率为35.7%；抗原阳性男性的发病率为43.9%，CD4 + 细胞计数低（低于0.5×10⁹/L）的男性发病率为51.9%，核心抗体阳性男性发病率为6.8%，抗原阴性男性发病率为6.9%，CD4 + 细胞计数正常的男性发病率为6.1%。核心抗体消失、抗原表达以及CD4 + 细胞计数降低分别比艾滋病提前出现的中位时间为624天、544天和466天。26例患者中有21例在患艾滋病之前核心抗体呈阴性，其中20例抗原也呈阳性。在CD4 + 细胞计数低的抗原阴性、核心抗体阳性男性中又有4例患上了艾滋病。只有1例艾滋病患者通过这三种标志物未被检测出来。
