Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, Viet Nam; Faculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Germany.
Faculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Germany.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jul 15;630:718-727. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.250. Epub 2018 Feb 27.
Vu Gia- Thu Bon (VGTB) River Basin, located in the Central Coastal zone of Viet Nam currently faces water shortage. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the challenge. Therefore, there is a need to study the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the river basin. The study adopts a combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment to address the impacts of climate change on water shortage in the VGTB River Basin. A MIKE BASIN water balance model for the river basin was established to simulate the response of the hydrological system. Simulations were performed through parametrically varying temperature and precipitation to determine the vulnerability space of water shortage. General Circulation Models (GCMs) were then utilized to provide climate projections for the river basin. The output from GCMs was then mapped onto the vulnerability space determined earlier. In total, 9 out of 55 water demand nodes in the simulation are expected to face problematic conditions as future climate changes.
越佳-秋盆（VGTB）流域位于越南中部沿海地区，目前面临水资源短缺问题。预计气候变化将使这一挑战更加严峻。因此，有必要研究气候变化对流域水资源短缺的影响。本研究采用自上而下和自下而上相结合的气候变化影响评估方法，来评估气候变化对 VGTB 流域水资源短缺的影响。为了模拟水文系统的响应，建立了一个适用于该流域的 MIKE BASIN 水量平衡模型。通过参数化改变温度和降水来进行模拟，以确定水资源短缺的脆弱性空间。然后利用全球气候模式（GCMs）为流域提供气候预测。将 GCMs 的输出映射到之前确定的脆弱性空间上。在模拟中，55 个需水节点中有 9 个预计将在未来气候变化中面临问题。
