Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jul 15;630:943-950. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.261. Epub 2018 Mar 7.
It is widely accepted that temperatures is associated with cardiovascular mortality, however, few studies have explored the effects of temperature on years of life lost (YLL) from cardiovascular mortality in China under future global warming scenarios. Therefore, there is an urgent need to obtain projections of YLL from cardiovascular diseases. Here we applied nineteen global-scale climate models (GCMs) and three Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (RCPs) in the 2050s and 2070s for temperature-related YLL projection in Tianjin, China. We found the relationships between daily maximum temperatures with YLL from cardiovascular mortality were basically U-shaped. We observed increasing net annual YLL across a range of multiple models under different climate scenarios, suggesting that increasing heat-related YLL from cardiovascular mortality could offset decreasing cold-related YLL from cardiovascular mortality. The largest temperature-related YLL from cardiovascular mortality were observed under the RCP8.5 scenario and increased more rapidly in the 2070s versus the 2050s. Monthly analyses of percent changes in YLL from cardiovascular mortality showed that the largest percent increases occurred from May to September. If warm adaptation occurs, only the adverse effects under RCP2.6 could be fully offset in both 2050 and 2070. Our exploration provided further evidence for the potential health impacts of global warming and highlighted that government should develop environmental policies for future health risks.
人们普遍认为气温与心血管死亡率有关，但很少有研究探讨在未来全球变暖情景下，温度对中国心血管死亡率所致生命年损失(YLL)的影响。因此，迫切需要获得心血管疾病所致 YLL 的预测值。本研究应用 19 个全球气候模式(GCMs)和 3 种代表性浓度路径排放情景(RCPs)，预测了 2050 年代和 2070 年代天津与温度相关的 YLL。结果表明，每日最高温度与心血管死亡率所致 YLL 之间的关系基本呈 U 型。在不同气候情景下，多个模型中观察到净年 YLL 呈增加趋势，这表明与热相关的心血管死亡率所致 YLL 的增加可能抵消了与冷相关的心血管死亡率所致 YLL 的减少。在 RCP8.5 情景下，心血管死亡率所致与温度相关的 YLL 最大，并在 2070 年代比 2050 年代增加得更快。心血管死亡率所致 YLL 百分比变化的月度分析表明，最大的百分比增加发生在 5 月至 9 月。如果进行了热适应，那么在 2050 年和 2070 年，只有在 RCP2.6 下的不利影响才能完全被抵消。本研究进一步证明了全球变暖对健康的潜在影响，并强调政府应制定未来健康风险的环境政策。
