Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China.
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Apr 14;17(8):2699. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17082699.
The ambient temperature-health relationship is of growing interest as the climate changes. Previous studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and mortality or morbidity, however, there is little literature available on the ambient temperature effects on year of life lost (YLL). Thus, we aimed to quantify the YLL attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature. We obtained data from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2017 of 70 counties in Hunan, China. In order to combine the effects of each county, we used YLL rate as a health outcome indicator. The YLL rate was equal to the total YLL divided by the population of each county, and multiplied by 100,000. We estimated the associations between ambient temperature and YLL with a distributed lag non-linear model (DNLM) in a single county, and then pooled them in a multivariate meta-regression. The daily mean YLL rates were 22.62 y/(p·100,000), 10.14 y/(p·100,000) and 2.33 y/(p·100,000) within the study period for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease death. Ambient temperature was responsible for advancing a substantial fraction of YLL, with attributable fractions of 10.73% (4.36-17.09%) and 16.44% (9.09-23.79%) for non-accidental and cardiovascular disease death, respectively. However, the ambient temperature effect was not significantly for respiratory disease death, corresponding to 5.47% (-2.65-13.60%). Most of the YLL burden was caused by a cold temperature than the optimum temperature, with an overall estimate of 10.27% (4.52-16.03%) and 15.94% (8.82-23.05%) for non-accidental and cardiovascular disease death, respectively. Cold and heat temperature-related YLLs were higher in the elderly and females than the young and males. Extreme cold temperature had an effect on all age groups in different kinds of disease-caused death. This study highlights that general preventative measures could be important for moderate temperatures, whereas quick and effective measures should be provided for extreme temperatures.
随着气候变化，环境温度与健康之间的关系日益受到关注。先前的研究已经探讨了环境温度与死亡率或发病率之间的关系，但是，有关环境温度对生命损失年数（YLL）影响的文献很少。因此，我们旨在量化非最佳环境温度造成的 YLL。我们从中国湖南省的 70 个县获得了 2013 年 1 月 1 日至 2017 年 12 月 31 日的数据。为了结合每个县的影响，我们使用 YLL 率作为健康结果指标。YLL 率等于每个县的总 YLL 除以人口，再乘以 100,000。我们使用单县分布滞后非线性模型（DNLM）来估计环境温度与 YLL 之间的关联，然后在多元荟萃回归中对其进行汇总。在研究期间，非意外、心血管和呼吸道疾病死亡的每日平均 YLL 率分别为 22.62 y/（p·100,000）、10.14 y/（p·100,000）和 2.33 y/（p·100,000）。环境温度导致大量 YLL 提前发生，非意外和心血管疾病死亡的归因分数分别为 10.73%（4.36-17.09%）和 16.44%（9.09-23.79%）。然而，环境温度对呼吸道疾病死亡的影响并不显著，对应值为 5.47%（-2.65-13.60%）。造成 YLL 负担的大部分是低温，而非最佳温度，非意外和心血管疾病死亡的总体估计值分别为 10.27%（4.52-16.03%）和 15.94%（8.82-23.05%）。老年和女性的低温和高温相关 YLL 高于年轻和男性。极端低温对不同疾病引起的所有年龄组都有影响。本研究强调，一般预防措施对于中等温度可能很重要，而对于极端温度则应提供快速有效的措施。
