Section of Clinical Biochemistry, University of Verona, Verona, Italy.
Leon H. Charney Division of Cardiology, New York University School of Medicine, 522 First Avenue, Smilow 805, New York, NY, 10016, USA.
J Med Syst. 2018 Mar 2;42(4):68. doi: 10.1007/s10916-018-0925-6.
The cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of disability and premature death around the world. The ongoing publication of systematic and critical literature reviews has contributed to generate a kaleidoscope of guidelines by different scientific organizations. We investigated the accordance among the most popular web-based CVD risk calculators on the Internet. We carried out a simple study, by estimating the risk of CVD using the most popular Internet-based calculators available on the Internet. A Google search was performed, using the keyword "cardiovascular risk calculator", to identify the first 10 websites providing free on-line CVD risk calculators. We arbitrarily selected the cardiovascular profile of two subjects of a typical Western family: a 55-year man at a likely intermediate cardiovascular risk and a 45-year woman at a probable low risk. The score calculated according to the two arbitrary CVD risk profiles, one of whom was supposed to be at intermediate risk and the other at lower risk, was extremely variable. More specifically, the 10-year CVD risk of the 55-year old man varied from 3% to over 25% (median value, 12.9%, interquartile range [IQR], 10.7-19.0%), whereas that of the 45-year women varied between 0% and 4% (median value, 1.2%; IQR, 0.4-2.2%), thus displaying a nearly 10-fold variation in both cases. We concluded from our analysis of 11 different Internet-based CVD risk calculators that the final 10-year risk score can be extremely different, especially for the 55-year old man at predictably intermediate risk.
心血管疾病（CVD）是全球范围内导致残疾和早逝的主要原因。系统和批判性文献综述的持续发表有助于不同科学组织生成一系列指南。我们研究了互联网上最流行的心血管疾病风险计算器之间的一致性。我们进行了一项简单的研究，使用互联网上可用的最流行的基于互联网的计算器来估计 CVD 的风险。通过使用关键字“心血管风险计算器”进行 Google 搜索，以识别前 10 个提供免费在线 CVD 风险计算器的网站。我们随意选择了一个典型西方家庭的两个成员的心血管概况：一个 55 岁的男性处于可能的中等心血管风险，另一个 45 岁的女性处于可能的低风险。根据这两个任意 CVD 风险概况计算的分数差异很大。具体来说，55 岁男性的 10 年 CVD 风险从 3%到超过 25%（中位数为 12.9%，四分位距[IQR]为 10.7-19.0%），而 45 岁女性的风险在 0%到 4%之间（中位数为 1.2%；IQR 为 0.4-2.2%），因此两种情况下的差异近 10 倍。我们从对 11 种不同的基于互联网的 CVD 风险计算器的分析中得出结论，最终的 10 年风险评分可能会有很大差异，尤其是对于预测性中等风险的 55 岁男性。
