2016 年美国总统选举期间竞选集会日的袭击事件。

Assaults on Days of Campaign Rallies During the 2016 US Presidential Election.

机构信息

From the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.

Leonard Davis Institute for Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.

出版信息

Epidemiology. 2018 Jul;29(4):490-493. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000821.

DOI:10.1097/EDE.0000000000000821

PMID:29543668

Abstract

BACKGROUND

This study investigates whether assault frequency increased on days and in cities where candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton held campaign rallies prior to the 2016 US Presidential election.

METHODS

We calculated city-level counts of police-reported assaults for 31 rallies for Donald Trump and 38 rallies for Hillary Clinton. Negative binomial models estimated the assault incidence on rally days (day 0) relative to that on eight control days for the same city (days -28, -21, -14, -7, +7, +14, +21, and +28).

RESULTS

Cities experienced an increase in assaults (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03-1.22) on the days of Donald Trump's rallies, and no change in assaults on the days of Hillary Clinton's rallies (IRR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.94-1.06).

CONCLUSION

Assaults increased on days when cities hosted Donald Trump's rallies during the 2016 Presidential election campaign.

摘要

背景

本研究调查了在 2016 年美国总统选举前唐纳德·特朗普和希拉里·克林顿举行竞选集会的日子和城市，袭击事件的频率是否有所增加。

方法

我们计算了唐纳德·特朗普 31 次集会和希拉里·克林顿 38 次集会的城市层面的警察报告袭击事件次数。负二项式模型估计了集会日（集会日 0）相对于同一城市的 8 个对照日（集会日前 28 天、前 21 天、前 14 天、前 7 天、后 7 天、后 14 天、后 21 天和后 28 天）的袭击发生率。