The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2018 Dec;25(6):2083-2101. doi: 10.3758/s13423-018-1451-8.
The dominant paradigm for inference in psychology is a null-hypothesis significance testing one. Recently, the foundations of this paradigm have been shaken by several notable replication failures. One recommendation to remedy the replication crisis is to collect larger samples of participants. We argue that this recommendation misses a critical point, which is that increasing sample size will not remedy psychology's lack of strong measurement, lack of strong theories and models, and lack of effective experimental control over error variance. In contrast, there is a long history of research in psychology employing small-N designs that treats the individual participant as the replication unit, which addresses each of these failings, and which produces results that are robust and readily replicated. We illustrate the properties of small-N and large-N designs using a simulated paradigm investigating the stage structure of response times. Our simulations highlight the high power and inferential validity of the small-N design, in contrast to the lower power and inferential indeterminacy of the large-N design. We argue that, if psychology is to be a mature quantitative science, then its primary theoretical aim should be to investigate systematic, functional relationships as they are manifested at the individual participant level and that, wherever possible, it should use methods that are optimized to identify relationships of this kind.
心理学中推理的主导范式是零假设显著性检验。最近,这一范式的基础受到了一些显著的复制失败的动摇。有一个建议是补救复制危机,即收集更多的参与者样本。我们认为,这一建议忽略了一个关键点,即增加样本量并不能补救心理学中缺乏强有力的测量、缺乏强有力的理论和模型以及缺乏对误差方差的有效实验控制。相比之下,心理学中有很长的历史采用小 N 设计来研究个体参与者作为复制单元,这可以解决这些缺陷,并产生稳健且易于复制的结果。我们使用一个模拟范式来研究反应时的阶段结构,来说明小 N 和大 N 设计的特性。我们的模拟突出了小 N 设计的高功效和推断有效性,而大 N 设计的功效和推断不确定性较低。我们认为,如果心理学要成为一个成熟的定量科学,那么它的主要理论目标应该是研究系统的、功能的关系,这些关系是在个体参与者层面上表现出来的,而且,只要有可能,它应该使用优化的方法来识别这种关系。