Casagrandi Renato, Rinaldi Sergio
Am Nat. 1999 May;153(5):527-539. doi: 10.1086/303194.
We show in this article how the characteristics of fire recurrence in forests can be theoretically derived from simple information concerning forest morphology. The task is accomplished by means of a minimal model encapsulating a few assumptions on the interactions between overstory and understory species and on the mechanisms of fire development and transmission. The main difference with other models for fire prediction and simulation is that, here, fire is an endogenous variable with purely deterministic dynamics. Nevertheless, the analysis shows that fire recurrence can be chaotic for parameter values corresponding to Mediterranean forests. By contrast, the model shows that boreal forests and savannas have the tendency to experience periodic fires. These general results are in agreement with the studies carried out on many different forests in this century.
在本文中，我们展示了如何从有关森林形态的简单信息中理论推导森林火灾复发的特征。该任务通过一个最小模型来完成，该模型封装了关于上层和下层物种之间相互作用以及火灾发展和传播机制的一些假设。与其他火灾预测和模拟模型的主要区别在于，在这里，火灾是一个具有纯确定性动态的内生变量。然而，分析表明，对于对应于地中海森林的参数值，火灾复发可能是混沌的。相比之下，该模型表明北方森林和热带稀树草原倾向于经历周期性火灾。这些总体结果与本世纪对许多不同森林进行的研究一致。
