Petrini M F, Thomas D R, Mahan J M
Department of Medicine, University of Mississippi Medical Center, St. Jackson 39216.
Comput Biol Med. 1987;17(5):351-5. doi: 10.1016/0010-4825(87)90024-2.
The process of formal decision analysis is illustrated by using the case of the hepatitis B vaccine in a computer program designed to teach both subjects to medical students. The software presents the medical facts, determines personal risks, allows input of personal values and calculates utilities for the various branches of the decision tree. There are three possible choices: vaccinate; screen first for antibodies against the hepatitis B virus and vaccinate only if negative; and wait (do not vaccinate). The decision with the utility of the highest numerical value is assumed to be the best under the given set of circumstances. Unlike commercial packages, this software contains the information internally and does not require that the user be familiar with either medical decision analysis or with the medical aspects of hepatitis. The program is available for PC's.
通过在一个旨在向医学生讲授这两个主题的计算机程序中使用乙肝疫苗的案例,来说明正式决策分析的过程。该软件展示医学事实,确定个人风险,允许输入个人价值观,并计算决策树各个分支的效用。有三种可能的选择:接种疫苗;先筛查乙肝病毒抗体,只有在抗体呈阴性时才接种疫苗;以及等待(不接种疫苗)。在给定的一组情况下,数值效用最高的决策被认为是最佳决策。与商业软件包不同,该软件内部包含相关信息,并且不要求用户熟悉医学决策分析或乙肝的医学方面知识。该程序可用于个人电脑。