Strengthening the public health workforce: An estimation of the long-term requirements for public health specialists in Serbia.

At the beginning of the 21st century, planning the public health workforce requirements came into the focus of policy makers. The need for improved provision of essential public health services, driven by a challenging non-communicable disease and causes of death and disability within Serbia, calls for a much needed estimation of the requirements of the public health professionals. Mid and long-term public health specialists' supply and demand estimations out to 2025were developed based on national staffing standards and regional distribution of the workforce in public health institutes of Serbia. By 2025, the supply of specialists, taking into account attrition rate of -1% reaches the staffing standard. However, a slight increase in attrition rates has the impact of revealing supply shortage risks. Demand side projections show that public health institutes require an annual input of 10 specialists or 2.1% annual growth rate in order for the four public health fields to achieve a headcount of 487 by 2025 as well as counteract workforce attrition rates. Shortage and poor distribution of public health specialists underline the urgent need for workforce recruitment and retention in public health institutes in order to ensure the coordination, management, surveillance and provision of essential public health services over the next decade.