Li Qingfeng, Rimon Jose G
Bill & Melinda Gates Institute for Population and Reproductive Health Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
Gates Open Res. 2018 Jul 12;2:11. doi: 10.12688/gatesopenres.12803.2. eCollection 2018.
The demographic dividend, defined as the economic growth potential resulting from favorable shifts in population age structure following rapid fertility decline, has been widely employed to advocate improving access to family planning. The current framework focuses on the long-term potential, while the short-term benefits may also help persuade policy makers to invest in family planning. We estimate the short- and medium-term economic benefits from two major family planning goals: the Family Planning 2020 (FP2020)'s goal of adding 120 million modern contraceptive users by 2020; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 3.7 of ensuring universal access to family planning by 2030. We apply the cohort component method to World Population Prospects and National Transfer Accounts data. India and Nigeria, respectively the most populous Asian and African country under the FP2020 initiative, are used as case studies. Meeting the FP2020 target implies that on average, the number of children that need to be supported by every 100 working-age people would decrease by 8 persons in India and 11 persons in Nigeria in 2020; the associated reduction remains at 8 persons in India, but increases to 14 persons in Nigeria by 2030 under the SDG 3.7. In India meeting the FP2020 target would yield a saving of US$18.2 billion (PPP) in consumption expenditures for children and youth in the year 2020 alone, and that increased to US$89.7 billion by 2030. In Nigeria the consumption saved would be US$2.5 billion in 2020 and $12.9 billion by 2030. The tremendous economic benefits from meeting the FP2020 and SDG family planning targets demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of investment in promoting access to contraceptive methods. The gap already apparent between the observed and targeted trajectories indicates tremendous missing opportunities. Accelerated progress is needed to achieve the FP2020 and SDG goals and so reap the demographic dividend.
人口红利被定义为在生育率迅速下降后，人口年龄结构的有利变化所带来的经济增长潜力，它已被广泛用于倡导改善计划生育服务的可及性。当前的框架侧重于长期潜力，而短期利益也可能有助于说服政策制定者投资于计划生育。我们估计了两个主要计划生育目标的短期和中期经济效益：计划生育2020（FP2020）到2020年新增1.2亿现代避孕用具使用者的目标；可持续发展目标3.7到2030年确保普遍获得计划生育服务。我们将队列成分法应用于《世界人口展望》和国民转移账户数据。印度和尼日利亚分别是FP2020倡议下人口最多的亚洲和非洲国家，用作案例研究。实现FP2020目标意味着，平均而言，2020年印度每100名劳动年龄人口需要抚养的儿童数量将减少8人，尼日利亚将减少11人；到2030年，根据可持续发展目标3.7，印度的相关减少人数仍为8人，但尼日利亚将增至14人。在印度，仅2020年实现FP2020目标就将在儿童和青年的消费支出方面节省182亿美元（购买力平价），到2030年增至897亿美元。在尼日利亚，2020年节省的消费将为25亿美元，到2030年为129亿美元。实现FP2020和可持续发展目标计划生育目标所带来的巨大经济效益证明了投资推广避孕方法的成本效益。观察到的轨迹与目标轨迹之间已经明显的差距表明存在巨大的错失机会。需要加快进展以实现FP2020和可持续发展目标，从而收获人口红利。
