Gray David R
Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service-Atlantic Forestry Centre, Fredericton, NB E3B 5P7, Canada.
Insects. 2018 Apr 11;9(2):41. doi: 10.3390/insects9020041.
The pervading paradigm in insect phenology models is that the response to a given temperature does not vary within a life stage. The developmental rate functions that have been developed for general use, or for specific insects, have for the most part been temperature-dependent but not age-dependent, except where age is an ordinal variable designating the larval instar. Age dependence, where age is a continuous variable, is not often reported (or investigated), and is rarely included in phenology models. I provide a short review of the seldom-investigated phenomenon of age dependence in developmental response to temperature, and compare the derivation of the winter moth egg phenology model by Salis et al. to the derivation of another egg phenology model with age-dependent responses to temperature I discuss some probable reasons for the discrepancies (acknowledged by Salis et al. between modelled and observed developmental rates of the winter moth, and discuss the contribution that geographically robust phenology models can make to estimates of species distributions.
昆虫物候模型中普遍存在的范式是，在一个生命阶段内，对给定温度的响应不会发生变化。已开发出的用于一般用途或特定昆虫的发育速率函数，在很大程度上是温度依赖型而非年龄依赖型，除非年龄是指定幼虫龄期的有序变量。年龄作为连续变量时的年龄依赖性，鲜少被报告（或研究），并且很少被纳入物候模型。我简要回顾了在发育对温度的响应中很少被研究的年龄依赖性现象，并将萨利斯等人推导冬尺蠖卵物候模型的过程与另一个对温度具有年龄依赖性响应的卵物候模型的推导过程进行比较。我讨论了（萨利斯等人承认的）冬尺蠖建模发育速率与观测发育速率之间差异的一些可能原因，并讨论了地理上稳健的物候模型对物种分布估计的贡献。
