Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 3H5, Canada.
School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 5C8, Canada.
Sci Rep. 2018 Apr 11;8(1):5834. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-24057-z.
Ice-jam floods (IJFs) are important hydrological and hydraulic events in the northern hemisphere that are of major concern for citizens, authorities, insurance companies and government agencies. In recent years, there have been advances in assessing and quantifying climate change impacts on river ice processes, however, an understanding of climate change and regulation impacts on the timing and magnitude of IJFs remains limited. This study presents a global overview of IJF case studies and discusses IJF risks in North America, one of the most IJF prone regions according to literature. Then an assessment of shifts in the timing and magnitude of IJFs in Canada is presented analyzing flow data from 1107 hydrometric stations across Canada for the period from 1903 to 2015. The analyses show clear signals of climate change and regulation impacts in the timing and magnitude of IJFs, particularly in small basins.
冰塞洪水（Ice-jam floods，IJFs）是北半球重要的水文和水力事件，引起了市民、当局、保险公司和政府机构的高度关注。近年来，人们在评估和量化气候变化对河流冰过程的影响方面取得了进展，然而，对于气候变化和法规对冰塞洪水的时间和规模的影响的理解仍然有限。本研究对冰塞洪水案例研究进行了全球概述，并讨论了北美的冰塞洪水风险，根据文献资料，北美的冰塞洪水风险是最高的地区之一。然后，通过分析加拿大 1107 个水文站从 1903 年到 2015 年的流量数据，评估了加拿大冰塞洪水时间和规模的变化。分析表明，气候变化和法规对冰塞洪水的时间和规模有明显的影响，特别是在小流域。
