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通过个人的减灾努力增强社区对冰塞洪水的恢复力。

Enhancing community resilience to ice-jam floods through individuals' mitigation efforts.

作者信息

Ghoreishi Mohammad, Bellows Brandon, Lindenschmidt Karl-Erich

机构信息

School Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada.

Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 May 2;15(1):15431. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-98714-5.

Abstract

Due to its rapid occurrence and potential for severe damage, ice-jam flooding poses a major threat to riverine communities in cold regions like Canada. Mitigating these flood damages requires public and private strategies. This study investigates the socio-economic and psychological factors influencing residents' ice-jam flood mitigation decisions in Fort McMurray, Canada, by the integration of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and the Transtheoretical Model (TTM). To fulfill this goal, we conducted a structured survey among the sampled residents. Key factors such as threat experience appraisal, self-efficacy, and perceived costs turn out to be the important factors in flood mitigation actions. This study suggests that policy approaches should be diversified toward the unique needs of different groups, such as renters and homebuyers, to have a more inclusive policy. Stage-specific interventions are needed, as people at different decision-making stages need strategies that are specifically tailored to adopt protective behaviours. Policies should focus on a tailored approach to enhance self-efficacy by providing specific communication and a step-by-step guide on mitigation strategies. Practical supporting measures should also be pursued as financial incentives and low-cost services that reduce cost barriers and foster the adoption of mitigation actions.

摘要

由于冰塞洪水发生迅速且具有严重破坏的可能性,它对加拿大等寒冷地区的河流社区构成了重大威胁。减轻这些洪水灾害需要公共和私人策略。本研究通过整合保护动机理论(PMT)和跨理论模型(TTM),调查了影响加拿大麦克默里堡居民冰塞洪水减灾决策的社会经济和心理因素。为实现这一目标,我们对抽样居民进行了结构化调查。威胁经验评估、自我效能感和感知成本等关键因素是防洪减灾行动中的重要因素。本研究表明,政策方法应针对不同群体(如租房者和购房者)的独特需求进行多样化,以制定更具包容性的政策。需要进行特定阶段的干预,因为处于不同决策阶段的人需要专门量身定制的策略来采取保护行为。政策应侧重于通过提供具体的沟通和减灾策略的分步指南来增强自我效能感的量身定制方法。还应推行实际支持措施,如财政激励和低成本服务,以降低成本障碍并促进采取减灾行动。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1eac/12048527/a11367a59784/41598_2025_98714_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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