Yang Li-Tan, Chang Yao-Mao, Hsieh Tsung-Han, Hou Wen-Hsuan, Li Chung-Yi
Division of Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Medical College and Hospital.
Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University.
Acta Cardiol Sin. 2018 Mar;34(2):166-174. doi: 10.6515/ACS.201803_34(2).20171101A.
We conducted a time-series analysis of daily ambient temperature and all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease mortality in Taiwan, which is generally neither extremely hot nor cold.
Data on all-cause daily mortality rates (excluding accidents, suicide, and homicide), and mortality rates due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases between 2008 and 2010 were obtained from the Taiwan Death Registry. The daily temperature for that period was averaged from 33 monitoring stations nationwide. A generalized least square model was constructed to assess the relationship between the time-series trends of temperature and mortality, and the cross-correlation function was used to determine the possible time lag for the effect of temperature on mortality.
As the average temperature increased, the daily all-cause (β = -0.006) and respiratory disease (β = -0.012) mortality rates decreased. On the other hand, an inverse relationship (β = -0.028) between average daily temperature and cardiovascular disease mortality was observed only for a temperature between 12.91 °C and 26.36 °C. The time lag for all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality was similar at 4-6 days, while the lag for respiratory disease was longer at 13-16 days.
We found inverse associations between average temperature and all-cause and respiratory mortality. An inverse association between temperature and cardiovascular disease mortality was observed only from 12.91 °C to 26.36 °C.
我们对台湾地区的每日环境温度与全因、心血管和呼吸系统疾病死亡率进行了时间序列分析，台湾地区气候通常既不过热也不过冷。
2008年至2010年期间的全因每日死亡率（不包括事故、自杀和他杀）以及呼吸系统和心血管疾病死亡率数据来自台湾死亡登记处。该时期的每日温度是对全国33个监测站的数据进行平均得到的。构建了广义最小二乘模型来评估温度和死亡率的时间序列趋势之间的关系，并使用互相关函数来确定温度对死亡率影响的可能时间滞后。
随着平均温度升高，全因（β = -0.006）和呼吸系统疾病（β = -0.012）的每日死亡率下降。另一方面，仅在温度介于12.91℃至26.36℃之间时，观察到平均每日温度与心血管疾病死亡率之间存在负相关关系（β = -0.028）。全因和心血管疾病死亡率的时间滞后相似，为4 - 6天，而呼吸系统疾病的滞后时间较长，为13 - 16天。
我们发现平均温度与全因及呼吸系统死亡率之间存在负相关。仅在12.91℃至26.36℃之间观察到温度与心血管疾病死亡率之间存在负相关。
