评估气候变化对印度班纳拉斯河流域主要作物产量的影响。
Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.
机构信息
Department of Environmental Science, School of Earth Sciences, Central University of Rajasthan, NH-8, Bandarsindri, Kishangarh 305817, Ajmer, India.
Department of Environmental Science, School of Earth Sciences, Central University of Rajasthan, NH-8, Bandarsindri, Kishangarh 305817, Ajmer, India.
出版信息
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Sep 1;635:10-19. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.343. Epub 2018 Apr 13.
Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050).
作物生长模型，如 AquaCrop，在考虑到全球环流模型和区域气候模型的各种预测的情况下，对于了解气候变化对作物生产的影响非常有用。本研究旨在评估气候变化对印度拉贾斯坦邦半干旱地区班纳河盆地主要作物（小麦、大麦和玉米）产量的影响。AquaCrop 模型用于计算过去 30 年（1981-2010 年）所有三种作物的产量，然后将其与观测到的产量数据进行比较。根均方误差（RMSE）值用于评估模型在预测产量方面的准确性。此外，使用 CORDEX-SA 气候模式的三种驱动气候模型（CNRM-CM5、CCSM4 和 MPI-ESM-LR）的未来时期（2021-2050 年）的两个不同情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5），对校准后的模型进行了气候变化和 CO2 浓度对作物产量可能影响的预测。小麦、大麦和玉米模拟产量与观测产量的 RMSE 值分别为 11.99、16.15 和 19.13。预测未来时期（2021-2050 年），所有三种作物的产量将在气候变化条件下增加。
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