RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Massachusetts.
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2018 Apr 16;73(suppl_1):S10-S19. doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbx169.
Age- and sex-specific rates of dementia are estimated in the U.S. population aged 65 or older in 2000 and 2012 using a large nationally representative dataset, the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and accounting for mortality selection and specificities of the interview protocol.
A latent cognitive ability model is estimated by maximum simulated likelihood. Prevalence of dementia is identified using HRS cognition measures and the Aging, Demographics and Memory Study (ADAMS), a subset of the HRS (n = 856) with clinical assessment for dementia. Different cognitive measures are collected in self and proxy interviews. From 2006 onward, the HRS collected fewer interviews by proxy. Selection into proxy interviews is modeled as well as survival into the ADAMS sample from the previous HRS interview.
The prevalence of dementia decreased from 12.0% (SE = 0.48%) in 2000 to 10.5% (SE = 0.49%) in 2012 in the 65+ population, a statistically significant decline of 12.6% (p < .01). The percentage change in prevalence was larger among males (16.6% vs 9.5%), and younger individuals.
The prevalence of dementia among those 65 or older decreased between 2000 and 2012, although less rapidly than reported in other studies. The difference is primarily due to our modeling selection into proxy interviews.
利用大型全国代表性数据集——健康与退休研究（HRS），对 2000 年和 2012 年年龄在 65 岁及以上的美国人口进行了按性别和年龄分层的痴呆症发病率估计，并考虑了死亡率选择和访谈协议的特殊性。
采用最大模拟似然法估计潜在认知能力模型。使用 HRS 认知测量和老年人口研究（ADAMS）来确定痴呆症的患病率，ADAMS 是 HRS 的一个子集（n=856），其中包括对痴呆症的临床评估。在自我和代理访谈中收集了不同的认知测量数据。自 2006 年以来，HRS 通过代理进行的访谈次数减少。代理访谈的选择以及从之前的 HRS 访谈进入 ADAMS 样本的生存情况都进行了建模。
65 岁及以上人群中，痴呆症的患病率从 2000 年的 12.0%（SE=0.48%）降至 2012 年的 10.5%（SE=0.49%），统计学上显著下降了 12.6%（p<0.01）。男性（16.6%比 9.5%）和年轻个体的患病率变化百分比更大。
2000 年至 2012 年间，65 岁及以上人群中痴呆症的患病率有所下降，尽管下降速度低于其他研究报告的速度。这种差异主要归因于我们对代理访谈选择的建模。
