Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
BMC Biol. 2018 Apr 18;16(1):42. doi: 10.1186/s12915-018-0515-6.
In recent decades, meteorologists have made remarkable progress in predicting the weather, thereby saving lives and considerable sums of money. However, we are way behind when it comes to predicting the effects of environmental change on ecosystems, even when we are ourselves the agent of such change. Given the substantial environmental problems facing our living planet, and the need to tackle these in an ecologically responsible and cost-effective way, we should aspire to develop terrestrial environmental prediction systems that reach the levels of accuracy and precision which characterize weather prediction systems. I argue here that well designed, long-term monitoring programs will be key to developing robust environmental prediction systems.
近几十年来，气象学家在天气预报方面取得了显著的进步，从而拯救了生命并节省了大量资金。然而，在预测环境变化对生态系统的影响方面，我们还远远落后，即使我们本身就是这种变化的推动者。考虑到我们生活的星球所面临的重大环境问题，以及以生态负责和具有成本效益的方式解决这些问题的必要性，我们应该努力开发达到天气预报系统的准确性和精度水平的陆地环境预测系统。我在这里认为，精心设计的长期监测计划将是开发强大的环境预测系统的关键。
