Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Faculty of Health and Sports Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.
Environ Int. 2018 Jul;116:136-146. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.04.017. Epub 2018 Apr 18.
Investigating how well people adapt to heat waves and cold spells has been an important issue under climate change. Also, most of previous studies focused only on the mortality risks for heat waves or cold spells for certain time period not considering its temporal changes and increasing frequencies. This study investigated the change in risks of mortality from heat waves and cold spells over time, and estimated the temporal changes in mortality burden attributed to heat waves and cold spells in Korea and Japan. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 53 communities in the two countries from 1992 to 2015. Two-stage time-series regression with a time-varying distributed lag model and meta-analysis was used to assess the impacts of heat waves and cold spells by period (1990s, 2000s, and 2010s). In total population, the risks of heat waves have decreased over time; however their mortality burden increased in the 2010s compared to the 2000s with increasing frequency. On the other hand, the risk and health burden of cold spells have increased over the decades. Our findings showed that the future mortality burden of heat waves and cold spells might not decrease, when considering their changes in risks and frequencies.
研究人们在气候变化下适应热浪和寒冷天气的能力一直是一个重要的问题。此外，之前的大多数研究只关注特定时间段内热浪或寒冷天气对死亡率的风险，而没有考虑其时间变化和频率增加。本研究调查了热浪和寒冷天气对死亡率风险的时间变化，并估计了韩国和日本热浪和寒冷天气对死亡率负担的时间变化。我们从这两个国家的 53 个社区收集了 1992 年至 2015 年的死亡率和天气变量的时间序列数据。采用两阶段时间序列回归和时变分布滞后模型以及荟萃分析来评估热浪和寒冷天气对不同时期（1990 年代、2000 年代和 2010 年代）的影响。在总人口中，热浪的风险随着时间的推移而降低；然而，与 2000 年代相比，2010 年代的死亡率负担随着频率的增加而增加。另一方面，寒冷天气的风险和健康负担在过去几十年中一直在增加。我们的研究结果表明，考虑到热浪和寒冷天气风险和频率的变化，未来它们的死亡率负担可能不会减少。
