Able or unable to work? Life trajectory after severe occupational injury.

To study the probabilities and permanence of return to work, inability to work and rehabilitation, and to explore the connection between these life situations and later working after a severe occupational injury. A historical cohort of Finnish workers with a severe occupational injury during 2008 ( = 11,585) were followed up annually on the outcomes of return to work over a 5-year observation period. We examined transition probabilities from one life situation to another with Markov chain analysis, and applied logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to assess the effect of register-based determinants on return to work. Within the five anniversaries, 85% of the injured were working, 9% were unable to work (fully or partly) and 2% received rehabilitation. Age, gross annual income, type of work, injured body part, injury type and the injured's annual condition subsequent to the work injury were significant determinants of return to work. The probability of return to work decreased with time, but, on average, one-fifth of the injured workers succeeded in return to work after being unable to work on the previous anniversary, which indicates that it is worthwhile to conduct efforts for this target group in order to promote return to work. Implications for Rehabilitation The current life situation of the injured should be taken into account when promoting return to work, as it is a strong predictor of later working after a serious occupational injury. Rehabilitation and return to work programs should start in time due to declining return to work rates as the disability continues. Return to work on a part-time basis could be a good option during the early phases of recovery, since a notable proportion of those partly unable to work on the first anniversary returned later to full-time workers. The probability of recovery is relatively high even for those with long-term disabilities, so the promotion of return to work is highly recommended also for this target group.