利用三维 Copula 对城市降雨特征进行多元频率分析。
Multivariate frequency analysis of urban rainfall characteristics using three-dimensional copulas.
机构信息
College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China and Key Laboratory of Beijing for Water Quality Science and Water Environment Recovery Engineering, Beijing 100124, China; Guangzhou Municipal Engineering Design & Research Insitute, Guangzhou 510060, China.
College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China and Key Laboratory of Beijing for Water Quality Science and Water Environment Recovery Engineering, Beijing 100124, China.
出版信息
Water Sci Technol. 2017 Apr;2017(1):206-218. doi: 10.2166/wst.2018.103.
Urban runoff is a major cause of urban flooding and is difficult to monitor in the long term. In contrast, long term continuous rainfall data are generally available for any given region. As a result, it has become customary to use design rainfall depth as a proxy for runoff in urban hydrological analyses, with an assumption of the same frequency for runoff and rainfall. However, this approach has lack of overall coordination and cannot fully reflect the variability of rainfall characteristics. To address this issue, this study presents a three-dimensional copula-based multivariate frequency analysis of rainfall characteristics based on a long term (1961-2012) rainfall data from Guangzhou, China. Firstly, continuous rainfall data were divided into individual rainfall events using the rainfall intensity method. Then the characteristic variables of rainfall (design rainfall depth, DRD; total rainfall depth, TRD; peak rainfall depth, PRD) were sampled using the annual maximum method. Finally, a copula method was used to develop the multivariate joint probability distribution and the conditional probability distribution of rainfall characteristics. The results showed that the copula-based method is easy to implement and can better reflect urban rainstorm characteristics. It can serve a scientific reference for urban flood control and drainage planning.
城市径流是城市洪水的主要成因，且难以长期监测。相比之下，任何特定地区的长期连续降雨数据通常都是可用的。因此，在城市水文分析中，人们通常将设计降雨深度用作径流的替代物，假设径流和降雨的频率相同。然而，这种方法缺乏整体协调性，无法充分反映降雨特征的可变性。为了解决这个问题，本研究提出了一种基于三维 Copula 的降雨特征多变量频率分析方法，该方法基于中国广州的长期（1961-2012 年）降雨数据。首先，使用降雨强度法将连续降雨数据分为单个降雨事件。然后使用年最大值法对降雨特征变量（设计降雨深度 DRD、总降雨深度 TRD、峰值降雨深度 PRD）进行采样。最后，使用 Copula 方法建立了多变量联合概率分布和降雨特征的条件概率分布。结果表明，基于 Copula 的方法易于实施，并且可以更好地反映城市暴雨特征。它可以为城市防洪和排水规划提供科学参考。
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