Models to Predict the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Rural Mountainous Region of Vietnam.

OBJECTIVE

To compare and identify the most appropriate model to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a rural area in Northern Vietnam, using data on hypertension from the communities.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted including all residents in selected communities, aged 34 to 65 years, during April to August 2012 in Thai Nguyen province. Data on age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, and blood tests (glucose, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) were collected to identify the prevalence of high blood pressure and to use as input variables for the models. We compared three models, Asian, Chinese Multiple-provincial Cohort Study (CMCS), and Framingham, to estimate cardiovascular risk in the coming years in this context and compare these models and outcomes.

RESULTS

The prevalence of high blood pressure in these communities was lower than reported nationally (12.3%). CVD risk differed greatly depending on the model applied: approximately 21% of the subjects according to the CMCS and Asian models, but 37% using the Framingham model, had more than 10% risk for CVD. In the group without current CVD, these numbers decreased to 9% using the CMCS and Asian models but increased to 28% according to the Framingham model. There were no significant differences between the Asian and CMCS models, but differences were highly significant when comparing Asian versus Framingham or CMCS versus Framingham model.

CONCLUSIONS

The Asian and CMCS models provided similar results in predicting CVD risk in the Vietnamese population in Thai Nguyen. The Framingham model provided vastly different results. The suggestion may be that for the specific Vietnamese setting, the Asian and CMCS models provide most valid and reliable results; however, this has to be investigated in further analyses using real-life data for potential confirmation.