Department of Otolaryngology, General University Hospital of Alicante, Alicante, Alicante, Spain.
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, Spain.
Oral Oncol. 2018 May;80:82-88. doi: 10.1016/j.oraloncology.2018.03.021. Epub 2018 Apr 4.
The existing predictive models of laryngeal cancer recurrence present limitations for clinical practice. Therefore, we constructed, internally validated and implemented in a mobile application (Android) a new model based on a points system taking into account the internationally recommended statistical methodology.
This longitudinal prospective study included 189 patients with glottic cancer in 2004-2016 in a Spanish region. The main variable was time-to-recurrence, and its potential predictors were: age, gender, TNM classification, stage, smoking, alcohol consumption, and histology. A points system was developed to predict five-year risk of recurrence based on a Cox model. This was validated internally by bootstrapping, determining discrimination (C-statistics) and calibration (smooth curves).
A total of 77 patients presented recurrence (40.7%) in a mean follow-up period of 3.4 ± 3.0 years. The factors in the model were: age, lymph node stage, alcohol consumption and stage. Discrimination and calibration were satisfactory.
A points system was developed to obtain the probability of recurrence of laryngeal glottic cancer in five years, using five clinical variables. Our system should be validated externally in other geographical areas.
现有的喉癌复发预测模型在临床实践中存在局限性。因此，我们构建了一个新的基于评分系统的模型，并在移动应用程序（安卓系统）中进行了内部验证，该模型考虑了国际推荐的统计方法。
这项纵向前瞻性研究纳入了 2004 年至 2016 年间西班牙某地区的 189 例声门型喉癌患者。主要变量为复发时间，其潜在预测因子包括年龄、性别、TNM 分类、分期、吸烟、饮酒和组织学。我们开发了一个评分系统，基于 Cox 模型预测五年复发风险。通过自举法、判别（C 统计量）和校准（平滑曲线）对该模型进行了内部验证。
共有 77 例患者在平均 3.4±3.0 年的随访期内复发（40.7%）。模型中的因素包括年龄、淋巴结分期、饮酒和分期。判别和校准结果令人满意。
我们开发了一个基于五个临床变量的评分系统，用于计算五年内声门型喉癌复发的概率。我们的系统应在其他地理区域进行外部验证。
