Jover-Esplá Ana Gabriela, Palazón-Bru Antonio, Folgado-de la Rosa David Manuel, de Juan-Herrero Joaquín, Gil-Guillén Vicente Francisco
Otolaryngology Service, General University Hospital of Alicante, Alicante, Spain.
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, Alicante, Spain.
Eur J Cancer Care (Engl). 2018 Jul;27(4):e12860. doi: 10.1111/ecc.12860. Epub 2018 Jun 5.
Only one prognostic model for laryngeal cancer has been published, but it has not been properly validated and is only applicable to patients treated with radiotherapy. Consequently, we constructed, internally validated and implemented in an App (Android), a predictive model of 5-year mortality in patients with glottic cancer in a cohort study of 189 patients with glottic cancer in 2004-2016 in Spain. The main variable was time-to-death. Secondary variables were age, gender, TNM, stage, smoking, alcohol consumption, histology and treatment. A scoring system to predict mortality at 5 years was constructed, validated internally by bootstrapping and then integrated into an Android app. In all, 70 patients died (37.0%, 76 deaths per 1,000 patient-years). The predictive model had the following prognostic factors: larger tumour size, greater degree of lymph node metastasis, higher stage, smoking and alcohol consumption. The internal validation of the model through bootstrapping was satisfactory. In conclusion, a points system to predict mortality at 5 years in patients with glottic cancer has been constructed, internally validated and integrated into an Android application. External validation is suggested to make available a quick and simple tool to establish the prognosis for these patients.
关于喉癌，仅发表过一种预后模型，但该模型未得到充分验证，且仅适用于接受放射治疗的患者。因此，在一项针对2004年至2016年西班牙189例声门癌患者的队列研究中，我们构建、内部验证并在一款应用程序（安卓系统）中实现了声门癌患者5年死亡率的预测模型。主要变量为死亡时间。次要变量包括年龄、性别、TNM、分期、吸烟、饮酒、组织学类型和治疗情况。构建了一个预测5年死亡率的评分系统，通过自抽样法进行内部验证，然后集成到一个安卓应用程序中。共有70例患者死亡（37.0%，每1000患者年有76例死亡）。该预测模型的预后因素如下：肿瘤尺寸较大、淋巴结转移程度较高、分期较高、吸烟和饮酒。通过自抽样法对模型进行的内部验证结果令人满意。总之，已构建了一个预测声门癌患者5年死亡率的评分系统，进行了内部验证并集成到一个安卓应用程序中。建议进行外部验证，以便提供一个快速简便的工具来确定这些患者的预后。
