Department of Academic Surgery, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Centre for Statistics in Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Eur J Cardiothorac Surg. 2018 Aug 1;54(2):203-208. doi: 10.1093/ejcts/ezy180.
A risk prediction model is a mathematical equation that uses patient risk factor data to estimate the probability of a patient experiencing a healthcare outcome. Risk prediction models are widely studied in the cardiothoracic surgical literature with most developed using logistic regression. For a risk prediction model to be useful, it must have adequate discrimination, calibration, face validity and clinical usefulness. A basic understanding of the advantages and potential limitations of risk prediction models is vital before applying them in clinical practice. This article provides a brief overview for the clinician on the various issues to be considered when developing or validating a risk prediction model. An example of how to develop a simple model is also included.
风险预测模型是一种数学方程，它使用患者风险因素数据来估计患者经历医疗保健结果的概率。风险预测模型在心胸外科文献中得到了广泛的研究，其中大多数使用逻辑回归进行开发。为了使风险预测模型有用，它必须具有足够的判别力、校准、表面有效性和临床实用性。在将其应用于临床实践之前，基本了解风险预测模型的优点和潜在局限性至关重要。本文为临床医生提供了一个简要概述，介绍了在开发或验证风险预测模型时需要考虑的各种问题。还包括如何开发简单模型的示例。
