1 U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, 5001 Campus Drive, College Park, Maryland 20740; and.
2 U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, 6502 South Archer Road, Bedford Park, Illinois 60501, USA.
J Food Prot. 2018 Jun;81(6):1001-1014. doi: 10.4315/0362-028X.JFP-17-379.
We developed a quantitative risk assessment model to assess the risk of human nontyphoidal salmonellosis from consumption of pistachios in the United States and to evaluate the impact of Salmonella treatments (1- to 5-log reductions). The exposure model estimating prevalence and contamination levels of Salmonella at consumption included steps in pistachio processing such as transport from grower to huller, removal of the hull through wet abrasion, separation of pistachio floaters (immature, smaller nuts) and sinkers (mature, larger nuts) in a flotation tank, drying, storage, and partitioning. The risks of illness per serving and per year were evaluated by including a Salmonella dose-response model and U.S. consumption data. The spread of Salmonella through float tank water, delay in drying resulting in growth, increased Salmonella levels through pest infestation during storage (pre- and posttreatment), and a simulation of the 2016 U.S. salmonellosis outbreak linked to consumption of pistachios were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted one case of salmonellosis per 2 million servings (95% CI: one case per 5 million to 800,000 servings) for sinker pistachios and one case per 200,000 servings (95% CI: one case per 400,000 to 40,000 servings) for floater pistachios when no Salmonella treatment was applied and pistachios were consumed as a core product (>80% pistachio) uncooked at home. Assuming 90% of the pistachio supply is sinkers and 10% is floaters, the model estimated 419 salmonellosis cases per year (95% CI: 200 to 1,083 cases) when no Salmonella treatment was applied. A mean risk of illness of less than one case per year was estimated when a minimum 4-log reduction treatment was applied to the U.S. pistachio supply, similar to the results of the Salmonella risk assessment for almonds. This analysis revealed that the predicted risk of illness per serving is higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on consumer risk.
我们开发了一个定量风险评估模型，以评估美国食用开心果导致非伤寒沙门氏菌病的风险，并评估沙门氏菌处理（1-5 对数减少）的影响。估计食用时沙门氏菌流行率和污染水平的暴露模型包括开心果加工步骤，如从种植者到去壳者的运输、通过湿磨损去除外壳、在浮选罐中分离开心果浮子（未成熟、较小的坚果）和沉子（成熟、较大的坚果）、干燥、储存和分割。通过包括沙门氏菌剂量反应模型和美国消费数据，评估每份量和每年的患病风险。通过浮水池水传播沙门氏菌、干燥延迟导致生长、储存期间害虫侵扰导致沙门氏菌水平增加（处理前和处理后）以及模拟与食用开心果相关的 2016 年美国沙门氏菌病暴发，是模型中的非典型情况。基线模型预测，对于沉子开心果，每 200 万份中会发生一例沙门氏菌病（95%CI：每 500 万至 80 万份中一例），对于浮子开心果，每 20 万份中会发生一例沙门氏菌病（95%CI：每 40 万至 4 万份中一例），前提是未应用沙门氏菌处理且开心果作为核心产品（>80%开心果）在家中未煮熟食用。假设 90%的开心果供应是沉子，10%是浮子，当未应用沙门氏菌处理时，模型估计每年会发生 419 例沙门氏菌病（95%CI：200 至 1083 例）。当对美国开心果供应应用至少 4 对数减少处理时，估计每年的平均患病风险低于一例，这与杏仁中沙门氏菌风险评估的结果相似。该分析表明，与基线相比，所有模型化的非典型情况的预期每份量患病风险更高，干燥延迟对消费者风险的影响最大。
