Farakos Sofia M Santillana, Pouillot Régis, Johnson Rhoma, Spungen Judith, Son Insook, Anderson Nathan, Davidson Gordon R, Doren Jane M Van
1 U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, College Park, Maryland 20740 (ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6107-5212 [R.P.]); and.
2 U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, Bedford Park, Illinois 60501, USA.
J Food Prot. 2017 Sep;80(9):1574-1591. doi: 10.4315/0362-028X.JFP-16-511.
A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to assess the risk of human salmonellosis acquired from consumption of pecans in the United States. The model considered the potential for Salmonella survival, growth, and recontamination of pecans from the sheller to the consumer, including steps such as immersion in water, drying, conditioning, cracking, partitioning, and storage. Five theoretical microbial reduction treatment levels (1 to 5 log CFU) were modeled. Data from the 2010 to 2013 surveys by the National Pecan Shellers Association were used for initial prevalence and contamination levels. The impacts of atypical situations in the pecan production system were also evaluated. Higher initial contamination levels, recontamination during processing, and a delay in drying postconditioning were the modeled atypical situations. The baseline model predicted a mean risk of salmonellosis in the United States from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans processed by cold conditioning with no microbial reduction treatment and no further home cooking as 1 case per 775,193 servings (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1 case per 1,915,709 to 178,253 servings). This predicted risk per serving was estimated as a mean of 529 cases of salmonellosis per year (95% CI: 213 to 2,295 cases). Hot conditioning for shelled pecans and microbial reduction treatment of both shelled and in-shell pecans had a significant impact on the predicted mean risk of illness. Assuming 77% of the shelled pecans sold at retail (i.e., 80% of the retail supply) received hot conditioning, the mean estimated salmonellosis cases per year from consumption of in-shell and shelled pecans uncooked at home was 203 (95% CI: 81 to 882 cases) if no additional microbial reduction treatment were applied. The predicted risk of illness per serving was higher for all atypical situations modeled compared with the baseline model, and delay in drying had the greatest impact on risk.
开展了一项定量风险评估，以评估在美国食用山核桃导致人类感染沙门氏菌病的风险。该模型考虑了沙门氏菌在山核桃从脱壳机到消费者的过程中存活、生长和再次污染的可能性，包括浸泡在水中、干燥、调理、去壳、分级和储存等步骤。对五个理论微生物减少处理水平（1至5个对数CFU）进行了建模。使用了美国山核桃脱壳商协会2010年至2013年调查的数据来确定初始流行率和污染水平。还评估了山核桃生产系统中异常情况的影响。较高的初始污染水平、加工过程中的再次污染以及调理后干燥延迟是建模的异常情况。基线模型预测，在美国，食用未经微生物减少处理且未进一步在家烹饪的冷调理带壳和去壳山核桃导致沙门氏菌病的平均风险为每食用775,193份出现1例病例（95%置信区间[CI]：每1,915,709至178,253份出现1例病例）。据估计，每份的这种预测风险平均为每年529例沙门氏菌病病例（95%CI：213至2,295例）。对去壳山核桃进行热调理以及对去壳和带壳山核桃进行微生物减少处理对预测的平均患病风险有显著影响。假设零售销售的77%的去壳山核桃（即零售供应的80%）接受了热调理，如果不进行额外的微生物减少处理，在家食用未经烹饪的带壳和去壳山核桃每年估计的沙门氏菌病病例平均为203例（95%CI：81至882例）。与基线模型相比，所有建模的异常情况每份的预测患病风险都更高，且干燥延迟对风险的影响最大。
