GRECO, Institute of Aquatic Ecology, University of Girona 17003, Girona, Catalonia, Spain.
GRECO, Institute of Aquatic Ecology, University of Girona 17003, Girona, Catalonia, Spain; Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Oct 15;639:58-66. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.001. Epub 2018 May 26.
The successful establishment of an aquatic invasive alien species can be mediated by a suite of environmental factors, including climate and anthropogenic disturbance. Dams and reservoirs are thought to promote freshwater fish invasion success through hydrological alterations but the evidence for their role in the global invasion of Largemouth Bass (Micropterus salmoides) on a landscape scale is limited. Here, we examine the distribution of Largemouth Bass, one of the most widely introduced fish in the world, from the Iberian Peninsula using species distribution models (SDMs), including an ensemble forecast. We used these models to test the role of twelve environmental predictors expected to influence the distribution of Largemouth Bass, including the reservoir storage capacity at local and upstream reaches. We found that the predictive accuracy, based on AUC criteria, of the ensemble model was higher than any of the six individual SDMs for Largemouth Bass. The most influential predictor of bass distribution included in our model of the Iberian Peninsula was temperature, where warmer temperatures were generally associated with bass presence, and cooler temperatures with absence. In addition to warmer temperatures, increasing storage of local and upstream reservoirs increased predicted presence, suggesting an important role of reservoirs in mediating the invasive success of this fish. Our results indicate that although natural climatic factors may be crucial in the successful invasion of Largemouth Bass, hydrological alteration (e.g., regulated flow regimes and lentic habitats associated with dams and reservoirs) may be important. Understanding the drivers promoting the establishment of this global invader will be important in identifying areas at risk and in developing future efforts to control its spread, especially when those drivers are ongoing anthropogenic disturbances such as the construction and operation of dams and reservoirs.
水生物种入侵的成功建立可以通过一系列环境因素来介导，包括气候和人为干扰。水坝和水库被认为通过水文改变促进淡水鱼类入侵的成功，但它们在景观尺度上促进大口黑鲈（Micropterus salmoides）全球入侵的证据有限。在这里，我们使用物种分布模型（SDMs），包括一个集成预测，检查了分布在伊比利亚半岛的大口黑鲈的分布，大口黑鲈是世界上引入最广泛的鱼类之一。我们使用这些模型来测试 12 个环境预测因子的作用，这些预测因子预计会影响大口黑鲈的分布，包括当地和上游水库的储水能力。我们发现，基于 AUC 标准，集成模型的预测准确性高于大口黑鲈的六个单独 SDM 中的任何一个。我们的伊比利亚半岛大口黑鲈模型中包含的最具影响力的预测因子是温度，一般来说，较高的温度与鲈鱼的存在有关，而较低的温度则与鲈鱼的不存在有关。除了较高的温度外，当地和上游水库储水能力的增加增加了预测的存在，这表明水库在调节这种鱼类的入侵成功方面起着重要作用。我们的研究结果表明，尽管自然气候因素可能在大口黑鲈的成功入侵中至关重要，但水文改变（例如，与水坝和水库相关的调节水流模式和静水栖息地）可能也很重要。了解促进这种全球入侵物种建立的驱动因素将有助于确定处于风险中的地区，并为未来控制其传播做出努力，特别是当这些驱动因素是正在进行的人为干扰时，例如水坝和水库的建设和运营。
