Yu Yan
a University of Canberra.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2018 Nov;72(3):399-410. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1467032. Epub 2018 May 25.
This paper introduces the metric 'mean duration of obesity' to measure the average number of years lived with obesity in a population. A procedure was developed to estimate duration from periodic cross-sectional surveys. For annual cohorts born in the United States between 1925 and 1989, I estimated a logit model to derive age-cohort-specific probabilities of overweight and obesity (body mass index 25 to <30 and [Formula: see text]30, respectively), and applied life table techniques to convert these into person-years. Duration of obesity by age 50 increased fourfold from 3.58 to 14.35 years. The rate of increase was stronger across the 1945-79 and 1980-89 cohorts than the 1925-44 cohorts. The trend was driven by increased risks of obesity among children: age groups under 20 were responsible for 31 per cent of the duration increase between the 1930 and 1960 cohorts, but 72 per cent between the 1960 and 1985 cohorts.
本文引入了“肥胖平均持续时间”这一度量指标，以衡量人群中肥胖状态持续的平均年数。开发了一种从定期横断面调查中估计持续时间的方法。对于1925年至1989年在美国出生的年度队列，我估计了一个逻辑模型，以得出特定年龄队列超重和肥胖（体重指数分别为25至<30以及≥30）的概率，并应用生命表技术将这些概率转换为人年数。50岁时的肥胖持续时间从3.58年增加到14.35年，增长了四倍。1945 - 1979年和1980 - 1989年队列的增长速度比1925 - 1944年队列更强。这一趋势是由儿童肥胖风险增加所驱动的：20岁以下年龄组在1930年至1960年队列的持续时间增加中占31%，而在1960年至1985年队列中占72%。
