Department of Social Medicine, Toho University Graduate School of Medicine, 5-21-16 Omori-nishi, Ota-ku, Tokyo, 143-8540, Japan.
Department of Social Medicine, Toho University School of Medicine, 5-21-16 Omori-nishi, Ota-ku, Tokyo, 143-8540, Japan.
Environ Health Prev Med. 2018 May 24;23(1):21. doi: 10.1186/s12199-018-0708-1.
Ischemic heart disease (IHD/ICD10: I20-I25) is the second leading cause of deaths in Japan and accounts for 40% of deaths due to heart diseases. This study aimed to calculate the economic burden of IHD using the cost of illness (COI) method and to identify key factors that drive the change of the economic burden of IHD.
We calculated the cost of illness (COI) every 3 years from 1996 to 2014 using governmental statistics. We then predicted the COI for every 3 years starting from 2017 up to 2029 using the fixed and variable model estimations. Only the estimated future population was used as a variable in the fixed model estimation. By contrast, variable model estimation considered the time trend of health-related indicators over the past 18 years. We derived the COI from the sum of direct and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality).
The past estimation of COI slightly increased from 1493.8 billion yen in 1996 to 1708.3 billion yen in 2014. Future forecasts indicated that it would decrease from 1619.0 billion yen in 2017 to 1220.5 billion yen in 2029.
The past estimation showed that the COI of IHD increased; in the mixed model, the COI was predicted to decrease with the continuing trend of health-related indicators. The COI of IHD in the future projection showed that, although the average age of death increased by social aging, the influence of the number of deaths and mortality cost decreased.
缺血性心脏病（IHD/ICD10：I20-I25）是日本的第二大死亡原因，占心脏病死亡人数的 40%。本研究旨在使用疾病成本（COI）方法计算 IHD 的经济负担，并确定导致 IHD 经济负担变化的关键因素。
我们使用政府统计数据，每 3 年计算一次从 1996 年到 2014 年的疾病成本（COI）。然后，我们使用固定和可变模型估计，从 2017 年开始预测每 3 年的 COI 到 2029 年。在固定模型估计中，仅将估计的未来人口用作变量。相比之下，可变模型估计考虑了过去 18 年与健康相关指标的时间趋势。我们从直接和间接成本（发病率和死亡率）的总和中得出 COI。
过去对 COI 的估计从 1996 年的 14938 亿日元略有增加到 2014 年的 17083 亿日元。未来预测表明，它将从 2017 年的 16190 亿日元下降到 2029 年的 12205 亿日元。
过去的估计表明 IHD 的 COI 增加了；在混合模型中，预计随着健康相关指标的持续趋势，COI 将下降。未来预测的 IHD 成本显示，尽管由于社会老龄化导致死亡平均年龄增加，但死亡人数和死亡率成本的影响降低。
